FAQ
Status: 06/14/2022 1:06 p.m
The number of corona infections is increasing significantly despite mild temperatures. Why is that and how experts assess the situation in the third Corona summer – answers to important questions.
Why is the number of infections increasing?
The numbers, which are increasing despite mild temperatures – the nationwide seven-day incidence jumped to 447.3 today compared to 331.8 the day before – have several reasons, according to experts. On the one hand, there is the omicron subtype BA.5, which has recently been increasing steadily in Germany. “The sub-variant BA.5 is even more contagious than all previous variants, so it can also spread under the adverse conditions for the virus in summer,” explains epidemiologist Timo Ulrichs from the Akkon University of Human Sciences in Berlin.
According to the current state of knowledge, BA.5 can also escape the immune system, even if it has already had contact with omicron variants, says Ulrichs. Even fully vaccinated people are not immune to infection. “This means a large number of hosts are eligible for propagation.”
After waves in countries like Portugal, many experts also expect that BA.5 will soon become dominant. According to the current RKI weekly report, the proportion of BA.5 is about ten percent according to the data from two weeks ago – but it should now be much higher, estimates the Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology, Carsten Watzl.
On the other hand, there is a general change in the behavior of many people. Against the background of the fallen corona restrictions, Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology in Bremen points to greater mobility and more contacts – and with significantly less protective behavior such as wearing a mask. The vaccination, which is now long in the past for many, also plays a role in the increasing spread again: “The immunity has decreased on average, but there should still be clear protection against serious illnesses,” says Zeeb.
Is an early summer wave imminent?
Immunologist Watzl is certain: There will be no single-digit incidences like last summer this year. “As can currently be seen, the incidences will be in the hundreds. Omicron is too contagious for that.” He assumes that around half of the population has not yet been infected with omicron. “Since the vaccination does not protect so well against pure infection, the virus still has sufficient potential to infect people.” It is currently difficult to estimate whether BA.5 will cause incidences of more than 1000. “But there is a possibility of a summer wave,” says Watzl.
Zeeb also does not want to commit itself to how high a feared early summer wave could rise. The numbers are not necessarily as high as in Portugal, where by far the highest incidences in Europe are currently being reported.
How can the increase in infections be slowed down?
Only with quick, strict measures, say the experts. “From my point of view, it is hardly possible to intervene at the moment, except with very drastic measures,” says Zeeb. In particular, risk groups such as older people should therefore be actively encouraged to take booster vaccinations in order to optimize their protection. Specifically, Ulrichs sees the reintroduction of protective measures such as wearing masks across the board as the only way to slow down the current trend. Against this background, however, immunologist Watzl points out that there are currently no legal possibilities to take appropriate measures.
How dramatic is the current increase?
Even if the numbers require vigilance, the experts see no reason to panic. Intensive care physician Stefan Kluge from the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf is currently speaking of a “moderate” increase in the number of infections. “In the current situation, it has to be about preventing illness and not so much pure infection. That’s why a summer wave isn’t worrying at first,” says Watzl. Nevertheless, it is important to continue to protect particularly vulnerable people.
Zeeb says that there will be more infections in the foreseeable future, but since BA.5 is clinically similar to previous omicron variants according to the current state of knowledge, it should mostly remain mild. All in all, there could be a little more hospitalizations and deaths if the number of infections increases significantly, he thinks – but in his view there is no imminent overload of the healthcare system.
With a view to normal and intensive care units, Kluge also finds that because of the rather mild course caused by omicron sublines, a significant burden on the health system is rather unlikely in the summer. Nevertheless, a high number of positive patients also means a significant additional burden for normal wards – especially for the nursing staff. Watzl also refers to possible failures at companies due to many minor infections.
More caution again?
With a view to individual behavior, the experts are now calling for personal responsibility again. In the coming weeks, Zeeb expects the number of infections to rise and fall, but then an increase in infections again from autumn and winter. So it must be clear “that Corona is among us, there is no security there,” emphasizes Zeeb. Since comprehensive regulations were largely eliminated, everyone now has to think about protection with masks and also keep vaccination protection up to date, even in situations with many people, especially indoors and on public transport. Ulrichs is: “A little more caution would be helpful.”