Corona is back, one reads these days. But what does that actually mean? How many get infected, are the new variants more threatening than the old ones and do I have to be vaccinated again? The most important information at a glance.
What do the numbers say? Who is getting infected right now, who is suffering?
They rise again. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has been observing more Covid 19 infections for almost two months. In the week from August 28 to September 3, the statisticians counted 5,102 laboratory-confirmed Covid 19 cases – more than twice as many as at the beginning of August. But other measurement data is also increasing, as the pandemic radar of the Federal Ministry of Health shows:
- 7-day incidence: Officially, it is currently six Covid-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. For comparison: In March 2022, Germany was struggling with incidences of over 1900. However, a lot more were tested at that time.
- Sewage: Another pillar of pandemic surveillance is the screening of wastewater: sewage treatment plants and laboratories measure the Sars-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater and transmit the data to the Federal Environment Agency. The proportion of locations with an increasing viral load in the wastewater is currently 53 percent, nine percent higher than in the previous week. Only the sewage-based surveillance is still under construction. The selection of locations according to the RKI is not yet representative for Germany and wastewater data should therefore still be interpreted with caution based on the current status.
- Treatments: The number of doctor visits for a respiratory disease with a Covid 19 diagnosis is 60 percent higher than in the previous week.
- intensive care units: Doctors in German intensive care units are currently treating 188 patients with corona. But only about half of them would be treated there for pneumonia caused by the virus, says Stephan Kluge, director of the clinic for intensive care at the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE).
- deaths: There have been 123 confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the past week, mostly in the 80+ age group. That is 200 percent more than in the previous week. At the beginning of September 2022, the number of deaths was still around 550. At least 175,555 people have died of or with Covid-19 in Germany since the beginning of the pandemic.
What do you know about the dark figure?
While a number like 5102 sounds pretty concrete, it doesn’t quite reflect reality. She can’t do that either, because every infection would have to be proven. This is not possible because not everyone who is infected develops symptoms. In addition, hardly anyone takes a corona test the first time they sneeze and the result of self-tests does not end up in any health authority. The amount of data currently available to experts is therefore much smaller than it was a few months ago.
What the number of infections confirmed in the laboratory shows is above all a trend and it shows that more people are getting sick again. The actual number of infected people, on the other hand, is likely to be many times higher.
What threatens us in autumn and winter?
Most experts are forecasting more cases, but no exceptional corona situation: “I firmly assume that we will manage this season without a disaster plan,” says Cihan Çelik from the Darmstadt Clinic. However, what exactly happens depends not only on which corona variants will prevail in the coming months, but also on what problems other viruses will cause in the coming months. Because the mixture of Sars-CoV-2, influenza, RSV and the seasonal respiratory viruses can put a heavy strain on the health system and lead to renewed supply bottlenecks. The biggest problem is the lack of skilled workers, according to intensive care physician Kluge. “We know from many reports and also data from the intensive care register that around 25 percent of German intensive care beds cannot be operated due to a lack of staff.”
Which new variants are currently available and how dangerous are they?
There is currently a colorful mixture of very different Sars-CoV-2 variants in the international sequence data of the scientists. EG.5 and BA.2.86 are currently the important variants. For example, EG.5 has been the dominant Covid variant since August. The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified it as a “variant of interest” – mainly because it spreads well due to its genetic changes and its importance is growing. According to initial studies, it is currently assumed that the symptoms and courses caused by EG.5 are usually not severe. The WHO assesses the threat from EG.5 as “low”. Due to a mutation, Eris, as the variant is also called, seems to be more contagious – this also applies to those who have recovered or who have been vaccinated.
BA.2.86, nicknamed Pirola, is far less common at the moment. The subline has not yet been detected in Germany, which could be mainly due to the fact that little is being sequenced in this country. This variant carries a particularly large number of mutations, especially on the so-called “spike protein” through which the virus infects human cells. Therefore, this virus variant is also considered by researchers to be a significant advancement. BA.2.86 was developed from the older Omikron variant BA.2. Researchers suspect that she could have used an immunosuppressed patient in which she accumulated dozens of new mutations over months. Not really much is known about this variant, says Sandra Ciesek, Director of the Institute for Medical Virology at the Frankfurt University Hospital. “I think you have to wait a few more weeks before you can really judge what makes this variant so different.” As long as the new variants are omicron descendants, infections and vaccinations should continue to provide good protection against severe courses.
What symptoms do the new variants trigger?
The investigations into this are still in the early stages. But Eris is known to cause the usual symptoms such as headaches, coughing, muscle aches and chills when infected. There may also be a loss of taste and smell. Pirola is still too new and there is currently not enough data to make a statement about the symptoms. But there are indications that these are also classic corona complaints.
What applies now if I am positive?
Anyone who suspects that they have been infected with the corona virus no longer has to isolate themselves at home. The same applies in the case of a proven infection. Nevertheless, you should remain cautious – now is not the time for big family celebrations, visits to the cinema or even visits to care facilities. Those who voluntarily limit their contacts and do what is always advisable when you feel sick and feverish act considerately: cure yourself at home. If contacts cannot be avoided, masks reduce the risk of infection.
For staff in care facilities and hospitals, the RKI detailed recommendations: Nursing staff suffering from Covid-19 should only go back to work when they feel well, do not have a fever and can show a negative Sars-CoV-2 test result (rapid antigen test or PCR), but no earlier than five days later onset of symptoms.
Do the old rapid tests still work?
The old rapid tests that you may still have lying around in the drawer are still usable and also detect the current virus types – all of which are descendants of Omikron.
Who should be vaccinated against Corona now in autumn?
The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko), which is based at the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin, has described the group of people for whom – apart from the basic immunization that is already urgently recommended – a refresher is recommended for the fall: These are initially all people over 60 years of age. In addition, all people from the age of six months who suffer from an underlying disease. As with the flu, everyone who works in medical or nursing facilities should also be vaccinated, regardless of their age and state of health. There are also people in the family who have contact with relatives for whom vaccination would probably not provide sufficient protection.
From September 18th, the corona vaccine adapted to the Omicron subline XBB.1.5 should be available. This is now the third adjustment in response to new Covid 19 variants. Laboratory data show that the adapted vaccine elicits a strong response against the omicron variant XBB.1.5 as well as other omicron subvariants of the virus.
Collaboration: Alexandra Kraft, Frank Ochmann, Anika Geisler, Ilona Kriesl