The number of corona cases is falling. This trend could continue over the holidays. However, the danger is far from over. Experts warn against false security.
The positive trend continues. After the number of infections reached new records every day from November, the nationwide seven-day incidence is falling again. On Thursday morning the value was 280.3, as the RKI announced. The day before it was 289.0, a week ago it was 340.1. As the RKI further announced, citing data from the health authorities, 44,927 new infections were recorded within 24 hours. Exactly one week ago there were 56,677 infections.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the health authorities have reported a total of 6,923,636 cases. The institute put the number of people recovered from illness caused by the coronavirus in Germany at around 5,992,800. The total number of corona deaths in Germany rose by 425 to 109,749.
Despite the trend reversal, the government is concerned about another wave of infections due to the spread of the much more contagious Omicron variant. The federal and state governments therefore agreed on Tuesday to tighten the corona rules. From December 28th, there will also be contact restrictions for those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered.
The so-called hospitalization incidence is the decisive benchmark for tightening the corona measures. This value indicates how many people per 100,000 inhabitants are in hospital within seven days because of a corona infection. From a value of three, the 2G rule applies nationwide to events in a federal state – that is, only those vaccinated against the coronavirus and those recovered from Covid-19 are allowed. According to the RKI, the nationwide hospitalization incidence on Wednesday was 4.57.
Corona numbers will only be reliable again in January
With a view to the upcoming holidays and the turn of the year, the RKI warned that “less test and reporting activity” was to be expected. Accordingly, the official data could only provide an “incomplete picture of the epidemiological situation” in Germany. The chairman of the board of the Federal Association of Doctors of the Public Health Service (BVÖGD), Ute Teichert, assumes that the officially reported corona numbers could lead to an under-reporting. “The figures should not be reliable until the beginning of January.” That makes it difficult to assess the corona situation in Germany, said Teichert.
The interpretation of the reporting data had already been difficult at the end of 2020/2021. In a management report from that time, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) wrote, for example: “During the holidays and at the turn of the year, Covid cases are only detected, recorded and transmitted with a delay, so that the R value may be underestimated.” The figures were not considered to be more reliable until around mid-January.
According to Teichert, not only the health authorities are responsible for the inadequate data situation between the years, which are not allowed to keep up with reporting positive corona evidence as usual. In their opinion, simply fewer people go to the test. In addition, it can be assumed that fewer test centers are open. Teichert once again called for more staff for the health authorities so that there were no gaps there, for example on public holidays.
The board of directors of the German Patient Protection Foundation, Eugen Brysch, also warned: “On weekends and public holidays, data collection by the public health system goes into sleep mode. But the virus does not sleep. Political measures lag behind the infection rate.”
“Of course, the specialist laboratories maintained supplies over Christmas and made sufficient Sars-CoV-2-PCR test capacities available,” the Association of Accredited Laboratories in Medicine announced.
Pharmaceutical companies looking for a new substance
Even if the number of infections is currently falling, experts assume that the new virus variant Omikron could exacerbate the situation again. Pharmaceutical companies have therefore been investigating for weeks whether they need to adapt their vaccines to the ever faster spreading coronavirus variant Omikron. The vaccines were originally developed against the so-called wild type of Sars-CoV-2, which was first discovered in China at the end of 2019. While the agents used since the turn of the year 2020/2021 also showed their effect against later virulent mutants such as Alpha or Delta, it could look different with Omikron.
The new virus variant shows more than 30 mutations, mainly in the spike protein with which the virus enters human cells. Previous variants only showed around 10 to 15 mutations, according to Biontech founder Ugur Sahin. These changes at Omikron could have the effect – according to the fear – that the previous vaccines against an infection are less effective and that the antibodies formed in the body after a vaccination are insufficient.
Above all, the manufacturers of the mRNA preparations, Biontech / Pfizer and Moderna, have been advertising since the beginning of their first-time vaccines with the possibility of being able to adapt them quickly to virus changes. Both have been preparing their funds for possible mutations of the coronavirus for months – including with clinical examinations. “These studies have shown that variant vaccines are equally well tolerated and show symptoms similar to the original vaccine against the wild type,” said Sahin.
The US manufacturer Moderna began adapting its mRNA vaccine specifically against the Omikron variant at the end of November. “We have multivalent candidates who have already been optimized for earlier variants such as Beta or Delta and who are already in clinical testing,” said Germany Managing Director Gerald Wiegand of the German Press Agency. “Data has already come together.”
The manufacturer Astrazeneca has also taken the first steps together with researchers from Oxford University to produce an omicron vaccine in the event that it is needed. There was initially no time information.
When can an omicron vaccine be expected?
According to the company, Biontech already creates the prerequisites for being able to manufacture the product quickly. Company founder Özlem Türeci recently assumed that the first commercial batches of a special Omikron vaccine could be available in March – and then millions of them.
With a view to the preliminary study results, however: “These are not the basis for a preventive decision on the need for a vaccine adapted to Omikron. We have to evaluate further laboratory data and, above all, data from practice that are expected in the next few weeks. ” Only then will it be shown how things will continue.
Wiegand also emphasized that it had not yet been decided whether and when Moderna would bring an Omikron-specific booster onto the market. “The action is very dynamic.” Wiegand pointed out that a booster vaccination with the currently approved preparation from Moderna could increase the antibody level against Omikron – depending on the dose – by up to 83 times. “That is a sharp sword. But it is not yet possible to say whether that is enough to fight Omikron.”
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The European Medicines Agency (EMA) believes that it is currently too early to decide whether an adapted vaccine with a different composition is even necessary. First, “more data about the effects of the variant on the effectiveness of the approved vaccines” would have to be collected, the EMA informed the German press agency. There is also a need for more information on transferability and mortality at Omikron. Biontech and Pfizer recently announced that, according to preliminary laboratory results, three doses of their previous product would offer sufficient protection against serious illnesses after an Omicron infection. If the manufacturer does adapt it, the EMA has already made preparations.
Since February there has been an EMA guideline describing the requirements for manufacturers if they attempt to adapt their vaccines due to new virus variants. If the mother vaccine has already been approved, the modified active substance does not have to go through the entire process again. A clinical series of tests on the effectiveness with a small number of test subjects is sufficient, it is said.
Is the fourth spade coming?
“The current concepts are going in the direction of examining the possibility of boosting,” emphasizes Wiegand. Booster vaccinations are a “common approach” not only for Covid-19, but also for other infectious diseases. This means that there could be a further booster vaccination for the vaccinations against the corona wild type that have already been carried out, which is specifically aimed against the new variant in each case. Fears widespread by opponents of vaccinations on various social media channels that vaccination series with three new vaccinations against Omikron are planned are therefore unfounded.