conflicts
FDP in Taiwan: warn China of the consequences of military action
The FDP delegation stands together on arrival for a four-day visit to Taiwan. photo
© —/Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs/dpa
A war over Taiwan would not only have serious economic consequences, but would also mean many deaths and heavy casualties on all sides. Could China win a war?
To deter an invasion of Taiwan, FDP Vice-Chairman Johannes Vogel believes that China’s leadership must be threatened with economic consequences. After a meeting of an FDP Bundestag delegation with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen on Tuesday in Taipei, Vogel told the German Press Agency: “In the interests of a policy of deterrence, the international community must make it clear what can happen in order to make it clear to China that such an escalation is forbidden.”
It must be threatened “credibly” with economic consequences. Dependence on the Chinese market must also be reduced, said Vogel. The liberals bring this “very consciously” into the discussion about Germany’s and Europe’s new China strategy. The chairwoman of the defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, also reported on the talks in Taipei: “The political leaders hope that the free world, the democratic states, will turn the economic screws together.”
The visit of the ten FDP MPs was overshadowed by new Chinese military maneuvers near Taiwan. Tensions had escalated in recent months. Also, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, concerns are growing that China could invade Taiwan in a similar way. The communist leadership in Beijing sees Taiwan only as part of the People’s Republic and threatens to conquer it, while Taiwan has long considered itself independent.
Simulation paints a clear picture
According to simulations, an invasion of Taiwan would probably not end in victory for China – and would result in significant losses for all warring parties. According to a study by the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington, “The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of soldiers. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years to come. “
The Chinese would therefore sink two US aircraft carriers in most of the 24 simulations carried out. The US would also lose between 10 and 20 more warships. According to the scenarios, 3,200 US soldiers could be killed within just three weeks. While Taiwan’s armed forces would not be completely defeated, they would be severely weakened. They have to defend an island where basic services have collapsed.
For China, an invasion would result in even greater losses. Not only would the attack fail. According to the simulation, around 10,000 Chinese soldiers could also die and tens of thousands end up in captivity. The People’s Liberation Army could lose 155 aircraft and 138 warships, according to estimates. The country’s navy would “lie in shambles,” according to the CSIS report.
Delegation wants to demonstrate unity
At the reception with Taiwan’s president, Strack-Zimmermann said Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine was a “wake-up call.” It showed what happens “when a despot comes”. The FDP politicians traveled to Taiwan to show that democracies stand together. “We are here in deep friendship,” said Strack-Zimmermann. Tsai Ing-wen thanked Germany for its support: “Democracies must stand side by side.”
FDP Vice Vogel affirmed that Germany, Europe and the western allies support the “one China principle”, but that the status quo in the Taiwan Strait can only be changed by mutual consent. Any attempt to change the current situation through violence or the threat of doing so is “unacceptable,” said Vogel. The visit was a “gesture of solidarity against any threat of military aggression”.
Vogel then expressed concern about the tensions in the dpa interview: “The fact must be taken seriously that Chinese military units cross the middle line of the Taiwan Strait here every day, which they also want to use to underline that the military option is not off the table.” , said the FDP Vice. “In the 21st century you have to take the autocrats seriously and literally.”
With the “One China Doctrine,” Beijing is forcing its diplomatic partners and the United Nations not to officially recognize democratic Taiwan as a state. The Chinese leadership is also rejecting formal contacts from other countries to Taipei. Germany and the USA only have an unofficial representation in Taiwan.