Concerns in Ukraine: Is Belarus getting more involved in the war?

Status: 01/11/2023 03:29 am

Belarus plays an important role for Russia in the Ukraine war. However, the country does not send soldiers into battle. Does that change? New joint maneuvers of the armed forces provide Kyiv.

The maneuvers of Russian and Belarusian troops in Belarus bring back memories of the start of the Ukraine war. In February last year, Russia used the neighboring country as a deployment area and attacked Ukraine from there. There is now a joint combat force, which fuels fears that Belarus could also intervene in the war with its own soldiers alongside Russia.

Alexander Wolfovich – chief of the Belarusian General Staff – vigorously contradicts such assumptions. The joint combat force is only for deterrence, he said a few days ago: “I would like to emphasize that this is for defense purposes only and is primarily intended to protect the borders of the Union state. That’s what it’s designed for.”

Lukashenko praises exchange with Russia

According to information from Minsk, both countries recently increased their joint military exercises. The Belarusian state television reported that the combat troops of both countries are almost continuously on the exercise mission, concentrating on exercises for warfare in cities. Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko recently visited the Russian soldiers taking part in the maneuver and emphasized how much they benefit from the mutual exchange. “We didn’t just help you, we helped ourselves,” he said.

We get a lot of information from you based on experience. Well, our officers help those who are still in training, who figuratively have not yet smelled gunpowder, and those who need to remember military skills. This is a school for them too, this is a lesson.

Political scientist does not believe in direct participation

However, the Minsk political scientist and journalist Artyom Schraibmann, currently in exile, does not believe that his country will also take part in the war against Ukraine with its own troops. Belarusian support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine is already relatively high, especially with regard to supply routes and logistics. Schraibmann points out that not many Belarusian soldiers are available anyway.

That is, I can imagine that before partial mobilization in Russia it would have had some importance. At the time, 10,000 to 15,000 additional soldiers would have been important. If Russia now has hundreds of thousands of soldiers, what can another 10,000 to 15,000 unmotivated and poorly trained people do. I just can’t imagine that.

The Belarusian political observer Valeriy Karbalevich – also in exile – points to Lukashenko’s strong dependence on Vladimir Putin. Especially in the areas of economy, finance, energy and logistics, hardly anything would work in Belarus without Russia. A defeat in Ukraine would also affect Lukashenko’s fate as his regime relies on Russia’s support. “We can say that with absolute certainty. It’s quite difficult to make any further predictions.”

Concern about planned Luftwaffe maneuvers

In mid-January, Russia and Belarus want to start joint air force maneuvers, the Ministry of Defense announced in Minsk. It starts on January 16 and is scheduled to last until early February. Roman Bessmertnyj, former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus, warned on Ukrainian television of further airstrikes from Belarus. You have to keep a close eye on the maneuvers:

The fact is that quite a number of modernized missile systems of the Soviet Union remained on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Some of them have been modernized and their flight range has been increased to 800 kilometers. In addition, we must understand that now Minsk is a kind of logistics center for the delivery of drones from Iran to Russia.

In any case, Bessmertnyj is under no illusions. He firmly believes that sooner or later there will be another major offensive from Belarusian territory. The maneuvers served to prepare for this.

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