CO2 emissions almost at pre-Corona level: 1.5 degree climate target can only be achieved in crisis mode

Global Carbon Project
CO2 emissions almost at pre-Corona level: 1.5 degree climate target can only be achieved in crisis mode

Global Carbon Project Report 2021: The emission of greenhouse gases (here in the port of Rotterdam) has almost reached the level of pre-Corona times worldwide.

© Robin Utrecht / Picture Alliance

The CO2 emissions almost reach the pre-Corona level again, the 1.5 degree climate target hardly seems to be achievable. However, according to the new report from the Global Carbon Project, there is still a chance.

The global CO2 emissions, which are primarily responsible for climate change, will again almost reach the level of before the corona pandemic this year. This emerges from the climate report of the research project Global Carbon Project 2021, which was published on Thursday on the occasion of the world climate conference COP26 in Glasgow. China, which recovered from the economic consequences of the pandemic faster than the rest of the world, was responsible for 31 percent of CO2 emissions in 2020.

If this year’s trends continue, a further increase in global emissions in 2022 cannot be ruled out, the researchers said. This is especially true if road and air traffic return to their previous levels and coal consumption remains stable. The energy sector and industry are responsible for the sharp increase in CO2 emissions in China.

Before the world climate summit, the country announced that it wanted to be climate neutral by 2060. The peak in CO2 emissions should be reached by 2030 at the latest. The move away from coal is said to be achieved through increased use of renewable energies, but also nuclear power.

Emissions from coal already higher than before Corona

Worldwide, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels fell by 5.4 percent due to the corona measures in 2020. For this year, however, the new report predicts an increase of 4.9 percent. Emissions from coal use are forecast to be above 2019 levels in 2021, but still below the 2014 peak. Emissions from the use of natural gas are also expected to rise above the level of 2019 in 2021, thus continuing the upward trend that has persisted for at least 60 years. Only the CO2 emissions from crude oil will remain well below the 2019 level in 2021.

“The rapid increase in emissions caused by the economic recovery from the pandemic increases the need for immediate action against climate change,” said Pierre Friedlingstein of the Global Systems Institute in Exeter. He led the study, which also included scientists from East Anglia University, Cicero and Stanford University. The investments in the green economy in the economic stimulus programs of some countries have so far not been sufficient to reverse the trend. However, the economic slump caused by the corona pandemic seems to have accelerated the transition to renewable energies.

EU: Emissions increase by 7.6 percent

For the EU, the Global Carbon Project forecasts an increase in greenhouse gas emissions of 7.6 percent in 2021 compared to 2020. However, emissions would still be 4.2 percent lower than in 2019. In Germany, emissions in 2020 were around 9.7 Percent below the 2019 level.

According to the report, emissions in the United States will increase this year by 7.6 percent compared to 2020, but remain 3.7 percent below the level of 2019. The US was responsible for 14 percent of global emissions in 2020.

In India, emissions will increase by 12.6 percent compared to 2020 and 4.4 percent above 2019 levels. The subcontinent is responsible for seven percent of global emissions this year. The People’s Republic of China has been responsible for a quarter of global CO2 emissions since 2007.


Global Carbon Project: CO2 emissions almost at pre-Corona level: 1.5-degree climate target can only be achieved in crisis mode

The CO2 budget is running out quickly

In order to have a 50 percent chance of stopping global warming at 1.5 degrees, the world’s remaining CO2 budget of mankind has shrunk to 420 billion tons according to the Global Carbon Project and would be at the level of 2021 with CO2 emissions used up in eleven years. That CO2 emissions will suddenly drop to zero in 2032 is not a realistic assumption. Because, according to climate researchers, every reduction in emissions brings something, because the gallows period can at least be extended with it.

The climate target of 1.5 degrees set in the Paris Agreement can still be achieved with drastic measures, reports co-author Pierre Friedlingstein. In order to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, as stipulated by the EU, it is necessary to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 1.4 billion tons per year. That is ambitious, but possible. In the first Corona year 2020, emissions even fell by 1.9 billion tons. In plain language: With a worldwide CO2 emission per year that is in the order of magnitude of a pandemic year, the climate targets could still be achieved.

dho / Marlow Hood
AFP

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