Closed party: The stress test is still ahead of the SPD

Since by side – without a dispute: The SPD is currently giving a picture of harmony that is unusual for the party. The comrades stand united behind Chancellor candidate Scholz. The stress test is still ahead.

You could always count on one thing at the SPD: There was reliable arguing. The wing battles are legendary. The parliamentary left, spurred on by the Jusos, fought violent arguments over the course of the party with the more conservative Seeheimers. In the spring of 2018, the SPD rejoined a grand coalition only with pain, the dispute between the Pro-GroKo faction and the No-GroKo supporters broke out again in 2019, when the party fought for new chairmen in endless regional conferences.

One sees and hears of this almost existential dispute in the party today: nothing. This is all the more remarkable because harmony has not broken out with the recent upward trend in poll numbers. The determined unity of the SPD began far earlier, when the polls were still in the basement: with the announcement of the Chancellor candidate on August 10, 2020, celebrated unanimously on the stage in the Willy Brandt House – and kept secret until the end.

The weakness of the other

The closed performance of the SPD is orchestrated by Secretary General Lars Klingbeil – one of the very few who had firmly believed in a success more than a year ago. If people noticed that Angela Merkel was no longer running, it would make people think, repeated Klingbeil like a prayer wheel. The SPD general secretary could not have suspected that the competition for chancellor candidates – Armin Laschet from the Union and Annalena Baerbock from the Greens – would string error after error and gamble away trust in a hurry. Scholz’s rise therefore also has a lot to do with the weakness of the others.

In the party headquarters you don’t want to be too sure of victory. SPD co-leader Norbert Walter-Borjans sees his party in a very good starting position for the final phase of the election campaign, but no reason to take off.

After all, the mood is much better than it was a few weeks ago, adds co-boss Saskia Esken. Back then, the Social Democrats could do what they wanted and still didn’t get past a meager 15 percent in the polls. But then there followed Baerbock’s glossing over in his résumé and Laschet’s laughter in the flood area – and on the other hand a Scholz who scored points in the role of a reliable crisis manager and became more and more similar to Merkel’s style.

Fancy the SPD – even in Bavaria

Now the election campaign is going on, even in Bavaria, as the chairwoman of the SPD member of the Bundestag there, Marianne Schieder, is almost astonished to find out: Suddenly people would like to campaign, want to see the SPD, want to discuss – and not rowdy about Hartz IV, but interested in the candidate for chancellor and the SPD program. What is clearly due to Scholz: He can also be chosen for the middle.

Esken and Walter-Borjans are also unreservedly behind Scholz, the driving force behind the election campaign, as Klingbeil calls him almost euphorically. The new unity of the SPD, the whole party that stands behind its staff, all of this will of course continue after the election, says Esken.

Scholz needs the left duo

Esken wants to remain party leader, Walter-Borjans has not yet said anything publicly. And Scholz indicated that he could continue to live with the left duo at the top should he become Chancellor. He still needs the two of them to cover and capture the party’s left flank. This is also known to those in the SPD who have nothing to do with Esken and Walter-Borjans, but roll their eyes when only the names are mentioned. But nobody says that in public.

The Union is not letting go of an opportunity to point out that Saskia Esken, Kevin Kühnert or other party links are allegedly being hidden. The SPD, on the other hand, is of the opinion that Esken, Kühnert and Co. are fairly present. They weren’t hiding in any way – nor would they be hidden. But her criticism of the candidate Scholz is nowhere to be found, at least not in public.

But what if …

After the election evening it should be exciting. Will the left wing of the SPD swallow it when FDP leader Christian Lindner wants to clear the wealth tax and bury the citizens’ insurance in negotiations about a government alliance with the SPD and the Greens? Will the Jusos and Party Vice-President Kühnert stand still when concessions become so drastic that they almost physically hurt many comrades? And what if there is a realistic option of red-green-red that many left-wing parties openly favor?

Should the Union forge a coalition with the FDP and the Greens – is determined unity also the right recipe for a successful opposition? And what actually happens when a grand coalition led by SPD Chancellor Scholz is the last solution? It is difficult to imagine that the No-GroKo people would fall into collective amnesia and forget their aversion just because the Chancellery would be in the hands of the SPD.

The unity that gives the SPD an undeniable advantage in this election campaign still holds up. It is far from clear whether it will continue beyond election day. The party is still facing the stress test.