So far there is only one exploratory paper of the possible new traffic light coalition, in which measures are roughly outlined with which the great effort – the path to climate neutrality by 2045 – is to succeed. But what does it mean in concrete terms if Germany wants to achieve its climate goals? What will it cost and what do the specifications mean for the industry, but also for each individual? To this end, the management consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Federation of German Industries (BDI) jointly presented a study entitled “Climate Paths 2.0” in Berlin on Thursday. If you look at the paper in detail, you will quickly notice how drastic the measures and how big the changes must be that a future government must now make.
Even the choice of words on the 44 pages makes the urgency clear. There it is said that the new government must “set a lot of points very quickly” and make “critical decisions”. Germany is “facing the greatest transformation of the post-war period”. When presenting the study, BDI boss Siegfried Russwurm emphasized: “We are running out of time. Basic political decisions to implement the climate targets are overdue.” The study provides a kind of blueprint of how Germany uses CO in industry, transport, buildings and the energy sector₂– Reduce emissions by 65 percent by 2030 and achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in 2045 – and what that would cost: 860 billion euros alone by the end of this decade.
The study particularly focuses on the transport sector
According to calculations by BGC and BDI, around 50 billion euros will be required in industry by 2030 just to convert the most important production processes. “The main finding is how quickly investments must be made, especially in fully renewable technologies,” says Jens Burchardt, BCG climate expert and co-author of the study. For the industry, the higher operating costs are the greatest challenge and not just one-off investments. “Politicians must support companies on their way to greenhouse gas neutrality with various measures that make renewable energies and their use significantly cheaper than they are today,” says BDI President Russwurm.
Currently, only 1.1 percent of the existing properties are completely renewed each year. According to the study, this rate should almost double to 1.9 percent by 2030. Measures such as the replacement of oil and gas heating systems with locally emission-free solutions such as heat pumps, district heating or neighborhood solutions therefore require annual funding of up to 17 billion euros until 2030. For this, the climate expert calls for more transparency about the necessary redevelopment levers and funding options.
The transport sector is particularly in focus, as there, on the one hand, the CO₂Emissions have not decreased since 1990. On the other hand, the topic of mobility affects everyone in their everyday life. The BGC study also sees the switch to electric cars in passenger cars and a drive mix of battery and hydrogen vehicles for commercial vehicles as the decisive lever. However, the study also highlights that even if 90 percent of new registrations will not be combustion engines by the end of the decade, there will still be 30 million gasoline and diesel cars. The authors of the study therefore also call for incentives to be created for the use of electricity-based fuels (e-fuels) and biofuels in the entire transport sector.
The economy is dependent on intelligent framework conditions of politics
The paradox in the energy sector: “We need more and more electricity, but at the same time we also want the greatest absolute CO₂-Reduction “, explains Jens Burchart. The authors of the study analyze: A more than 40 percent higher demand for electricity in 2030 requires a doubling of the EEG expansion path for wind and photovoltaics, an expansion offensive of the electricity grids and more flexible consumption and coal, Burchardt is sticking to the expansion of gas-fired power plants: “We need considerably more gas-fired power plants to maintain security of supply, to replace conventional power generation, but above all a lot more renewable energies in order to achieve our goal and to compensate for the phase-out can. “In the long term, the gas-fired power plants should then be converted to hydrogen.
The debate about the climate change, which ideally should be shouldered equally by the state, business and society, also scares many people. “What is more expensive is what is consumed from fossil fuels, that is, driving, heating and flying,” says Burchardt. In order to prevent this, politicians must both promote more alternative technologies and create compensation mechanisms such as the climate money demanded by the Greens. One thing is clear: “For those who change now, switch to an electric car or install a new heat pump, it will be cheaper in the long term. They will be better off in 2030,” said Burchardt.
The study once again makes it clear: “The conversion is not a sure-fire success,” says energy and climate researcher Manfred Fischedick from the Bergische Universität Wuppertal. But it also shows that industry is a key player when it comes to making Germany climate neutral. Claudia Kemfert, energy expert at the German Institute for Economic Research, sees it similarly: The economy has long wanted to act and invest, but there was a lack of intelligent framework conditions for politics. The BDI has correctly recognized that too little has happened in the past twelve years, says Kemfert. “We don’t have any more time, we now have to focus on what we have committed ourselves to with the climate targets.”