It’s a realization that took a lot of time. 17 months after the start of the civil war, the Ethiopian government announced on Thursday evening that it would call for an immediate unilateral ceasefire for the regional fighting in the north – to “pave the way for a solution to the conflict without further bloodshed”.
The war between the breakaway region of Tigray and the central government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed began at the end of 2020, a year after Abiy received the Nobel Peace Prize for his policy of detente with archenemy Eritrea. But the prime minister helped plunge Ethiopia into a new conflict. Tens of thousands of people are said to have died since then, and according to the UN, around six million are “actually cut off from the outside world” in Tigray.
Now the government of Abiy is asking the international aid organizations to “double their generous contributions to alleviate the situation” and emphasizes the willingness to cooperate so that the support reaches the people more quickly.
Abiy has often expressed something like this or something similar, but in the end it was always a lie. Aid convoys were hampered, with the last shipments reaching Tigray in December, despite reports that further permits had been obtained. According to the United Nations, only 10 percent of the necessary food got through because trucks were not allowed to pass or disappeared. It is not always clear who is obstructing whom. The war has spread to other regions. In Afar, for example, troops from Tigray recently fought local militias, allegedly to free an aid corridor.
Nevertheless, humanitarian organizations are reacting to the announcement with optimism, because for the first time the opposing side is also in favor of a ceasefire at the same time. However, the Tigray leadership has made one condition: If enough humanitarian aid arrives to meet local needs “within a reasonable timeframe,” then they will also “commit themselves to an immediate cessation of hostilities.” Now it has to be shown how great the will is on both sides. It could be many days before new aid arrives in the north of the country.
However, Prime Minister Abiy could also quickly improve the situation in Tigray: It would only take a push of a button to enable mobile phone connections and bank transfers again. Since the beginning of the war, the central government has cut ties. A shadow economy has established itself in large parts of the crisis region, important goods have to be smuggled, food prices have risen by up to 400 percent, and the fields have been destroyed. In the meantime, apparently, so many Tigray have fled to other parts of Ethiopia that Abiy at least feels compelled to enter into a ceasefire.