China’s Population Decline Continues for Third Straight Year – January 17, 2025

China’s population has declined for the third year in a row, dropping to 1.408 billion in 2024, following over sixty years of growth. Despite policies allowing up to three children and efforts to increase birth rates, challenges such as economic prospects for youth and gender discrimination continue to hinder recovery. By 2035, nearly one-third of the population will be over 60. Authorities plan to raise the retirement age to cope with an aging demographic and a shrinking workforce.

China’s Population Decline: A Three-Year Trend

On Friday, China revealed a significant demographic update: its population has decreased for the third consecutive year in 2024, signaling a troubling trend after over sixty years of growth amidst a rapidly aging populace.

Once the most populous nation globally, China lost this title to India in 2023 and is now striving to enhance its birth rates through a series of subsidies and public awareness campaigns.

As of the end of 2024, China’s population stands at 1.408 billion, a slight decline from 1.410 billion the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Fortunately, this year’s decline is less severe than last year’s, which saw a doubling of the decrease.

Challenges in Reversing Demographic Trends

In response to concerns about overpopulation, China abolished its one-child policy in 2016, a regulation that had been enforced since the early 1980s. Since 2021, couples have been permitted to have up to three children. Despite these efforts, the demographic downturn persists in a country that has long relied on a large, inexpensive labor force to fuel its economic engine.

Yun Zhou, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, highlights that this population decline is likely to continue due to grim economic prospects for the youth and ongoing gender discrimination in the labor market.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, individuals aged 60 and older are projected to constitute nearly one-third of the Chinese population by 2035. Currently, this demographic includes approximately 310.3 million people, which is nearly a quarter of the nation’s total population—an increase from last year.

While the Chinese birth rate, among the lowest in the world, has experienced a slight rebound, rising to 6.77 per 1,000 inhabitants, experts warn that this uptick is unlikely to be sustained. Zhao Litao, a researcher at the East Asia Institute of the National University of Singapore, suggests that the number of women of childbearing age will significantly decrease in the coming decades, solidifying the long-term trend of declining births, shrinking population, and rapid aging.

He Yafu, an independent demographic expert, notes that the recent increase in birth rates is primarily due to delayed births that were postponed during the pandemic or a rise in births during the Year of the Dragon—an auspicious time favored by many parents. However, he emphasizes that the overarching trend of population decline remains unchanged.

In a bid to address these demographic challenges, authorities announced plans to gradually increase the legal retirement age, which has remained static for decades and is among the lowest worldwide. Starting in 2025, the retirement age for men will gradually rise to 63, while women’s retirement age will increase from 50 to either 55 or 58, depending on their occupation.

With a growing elderly population and a decreasing workforce, China faces mounting pressure on its pension and healthcare systems. This demographic imbalance could also adversely affect domestic consumption, as retirees are generally less inclined to spend compared to working individuals.

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