China’s corona policy: “The protests have made a difference”

Beijing is surprisingly quick to relax its strict zero-Covid policy. China expert Nadine Godehardt explains what role the protests played – and what they reveal about Chinese society.

tagesschau.de: How serious are the changes in China’s Covid policy?

Nadine Godehardt: The publication of the ten measures ends the zero-Covid policy in China. All major restrictions are lifted: the quarantine regulations, testing, to name just two. The question will be how all this will be implemented.

tagesschau.de: What difficulties does the Chinese leadership face in the implementation?

Godehardt: A few weeks ago, there were relaxations in the Covid policy, which were published by the state leadership, but then interpreted differently locally or not implemented at all. The challenge now will be to enforce this at the local level – not just in the big cities like Beijing or Shanghai, where there are many international journalists and companies who can report on it quickly.

“Strategy is not clear”

tagesschau.de: Does the previous easing lead to the conclusion that there has been an attempt to soften the zero-Covid policy for some time?

Godehardt: The new measures go much further than the previous ones. These were rather soft hints of a potential relaxation of the zero-Covid policy, but not a departure from the strict rules, such as testing in public life.

Lifting the strict policy is not a solution for the country. It’s a response that might have been planned – but actually in smaller, slower increments. She seems almost hasty now. And even if everyone is talking about opening up: It is not clear what the future strategy will look like.

Great frustration in society

tagesschau.de: What role have the protests of the past few weeks played in this – the Chinese leadership justifies the steps now announced with the development of the pandemic in the country.

Godehardt: I believe that the protests of the past few weeks have helped to react so quickly. The official narrative is that they are now talking about flu instead of a pandemic. But the protests have shown how great the frustration in society is – even if they only affected a small part of society.

But they took place at strategically important places in China and also received a lot of attention from abroad. The frustration was directed at the Covid policy but also at its consequences: the economic restrictions and loss of prosperity that many Chinese had to accept because of this policy.

“Management hopes to get away with a black eye”

tagesschau.de: What happens if the new measures are not implemented outside of the big cities?

Godehardt: While the new measures mean some rules will be lifted, they also mean that the Chinese people will be left to their own devices in dealing with the pandemic. Because the measures are by no means thought through to the last detail.

These are very brief guidelines that many cases do not even take into account. what about schools What is considered epidemic status there, what is not? It is to be feared that the implementation of the new rules will again be left to the people themselves and that hard times will be heading for them.

The population is still not sufficiently vaccinated. There is likely to be a massive increase in the number of infections. In this respect, this is a huge social experiment in which the leadership hopes to somehow get away with a black eye. Because the opening only makes sense if you start a big vaccination campaign. But that is not to be expected.

“These protests were something special”

tagesschau.de: Given the response of the political leadership to the protests, could the population conclude that it is worth taking a risk and protesting?

Godehardt: These protests were special. Nobody could have imagined that something like this would happen in China – especially not in a China under party leader Xi, which sometimes shows totalitarian traits. The nature of the protests was different from the many local protests that can be seen again and again in China. It’s not as if there weren’t any protests in the country at all.

But these widespread protests – whether they were planned as such or not – their relation to each other and the outsmarting of the digital surveillance state for a relatively long period of time were extraordinary and made a difference. This has also prompted the government to react quickly and take action.

Whether that means that people always take to the streets if something doesn’t suit them, I dare to doubt at first. Chinese society will now be busy dealing with the virus in other ways. No longer in lockdown, but with high infection rates. Winter is just beginning and there will certainly be a wave of influenza alongside the pandemic.

And the second question is whether the leadership will give in and buy a Western vaccine, for example. But that is completely unclear. Only: It won’t work without an mRNA active substance. That’s why you will probably continue to be very careful with the opening and there will probably continue to be many lockdowns.

“Society deals with its system”

tagesschau.de: Did we misjudge the Chinese leadership and Chinese society here?

Godehardt: Above all, the protests have shown that there is a Chinese society that is grappling with its system. The discussions that we are having in Germany and Europe are very much concerned with global China and the geopolitical challenges posed by the Chinese course. It is quickly forgotten that it is the Chinese who are primarily affected by the regime.

The protests have also made it clear that there is a society in China that expresses itself in its own way, as much as it is possible within the system. There have been calls for more freedom or for Xi to resign. But that was more an expression of frustration about the massive restrictions on her usual everyday life. And that, too, has led to these protests.

But I don’t think it’s about regime change or the possibility of society turning against the party. I don’t see that yet. There would have to be new opposition within the party for this, and there is none after the recently concluded 20th party congress.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de