China is becoming increasingly aggressive against the Philippines. Observers are warning of an escalation that could potentially involve the USA, which has committed itself to defending the Philippines.
Two days after the latest clash between the heavily armed Chinese coast guard and the Philippine navy in the South China Sea, the latter released a video. The footage shows Chinese forces ramming Philippine boats, removing cargo from the ships, threatening the crew with axes and knives, and towing the ships away.
The images seem to show that the Chinese coast guard is acting much more aggressively than in previous clashes.
China denies everything
China’s leadership is once again denying everything. The measures taken by the Chinese coast guard were professional and restrained and aimed at stopping illegal fishing, said Lin Jian, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing. No direct measures were taken against Philippine forces.
But the videos show something different. According to the Philippines, eight Chinese motorboats attacked two rubber dinghies belonging to the Philippine Navy on Monday. A Filipino man had his thumb severed.
The Philippine boats were trying to bring food and other supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague awarded the reef in the South China Sea to the Philippines in 2016.
But China doesn’t care. The communist leadership does not recognize the court and claims almost the entire South China Sea for itself. This brings China into conflict with most of the Southeast Asian states bordering the sea. Recently, clashes with the Philippines have increased there.
Does the war against Ukraine encourage China?
The ongoing war in Ukraine has made it clear that the international community has only limited ability to act, says political scientist Balazs Szanto of Chulalongkorn University in Thailand.
This is a signal to China that under certain circumstances it can get away with aggressive behavior. “With Europe preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the US increasingly preoccupied with its upcoming elections, China may conclude that conditions are favorable to act more forcefully in the South China Sea,” says Szanto.
USA is committed to defense
John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, called China’s recent behavior provocative and unnecessary on Monday and warned against escalation. The US is contractually committed to defending the Philippines.
The two countries have been in a security alliance for more than 70 years. In addition, the Philippines has established security partnerships with other countries, including the European Union.
“Although the US has reaffirmed its commitment to the Philippines, this is meant more as a deterrent and not as a willingness to be drawn into a conflict with China,” says political scientist Szanto.
It is more likely that China will continue to try to exploit its position and the international situation to put pressure on the Philippines and possibly gain concessions and advantages in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, the question remains as to what will happen if, for example, soldiers are killed in a clash.
Three weeks ago, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned China in clear terms: If a Filipino dies as a result of deliberate actions by China, the Philippines would consider this an “act of war” and react accordingly.