Chancellor Scholz is embarking on a three-day trip to Central Asia. A migration agreement is to be signed in Uzbekistan, and in Kazakhstan he will meet the heads of state of the five Central Asian countries.
The topic of migration is also on the minds of the Federal Government during the trip to Central Asia, as another migration agreement is being signed in Uzbekistan.
Joachim Stamp, the responsible special representative of the federal government, negotiated this. The FDP politician says that the country is a very important partner in many respects because of its geopolitical situation. But Uzbekistan is also one of the very few countries that “has such a high proportion of young people with good qualifications.” And they are prepared to tailor the training to Germany, “so that we can recruit suitable staff there in the nursing sector, for example.”
Young population, too few jobs
Uzbekistan has a high birth rate and a correspondingly young population. However, there are not enough jobs for them in the country. Traditionally, many Uzbeks have therefore gone to Russia to work. However, racism and poor pay are making this increasingly unattractive.
Migration expert David Kipp therefore sees the agreement as an opportunity for both sides. The interest in Germany and the German language is relatively high in Uzbekistan: “You always have to take this into account when choosing a country to cooperate with.” You can’t just look at asylum and arrival numbers. You can also look at the migration infrastructure that exists locally: “And if there are no good bilateral relations and no German schools locally, then it is often difficult to ensure that workers are well prepared for migration.”
Deportations of Afghans may be an issue
Labour migration to Germany, yes, but accepting Afghan criminals from Germany is more likely not. When asked whether Uzbekistan, as a neighbouring country of Afghanistan, could play a role in the repatriation of Afghan criminals, government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit remains cautious: “The question of deportations and Afghanistan, we have never commented on this in relation to individual states and we will leave it at that. But I don’t see it at the forefront of the discussion points either.”
From Uzbekistan, Scholz will travel on to Kazakhstan on Monday. A meeting with the five Central Asian heads of state will take place in the region’s largest country. The so-called 5-plus-1 format originated in Berlin last year. Now they are meeting again in Astana.
For Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations, the German government is still showing too little interest in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: “These are countries where they have to meet at the highest level.” Otherwise, no relationship can be developed there: “And here too, you can see that the German government and the Chancellor are more interested in symbolic politics than in building truly strategic, deep relationships with such countries.”
Geopolitical importance of the region is growing
Sandwiched between Russia and China, the region is geopolitically important. For Germany, it is about new markets, oil, gas and other raw materials. The federal government would welcome it if more Kazakh oil could flow to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg. A dozen business leaders are accompanying the Chancellor – in the hope of good business.
After Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, the importance of the region has increased, even though there are still traditional ties to Russia there. There are repeated reports that sanctions against Putin are being circumvented via these countries, says Central Asia expert Meister: “I would always describe the politics of Central Asian states as pragmatic. So you take what you can get from all sides. And you basically try to develop relationships on all sides, in all directions.” This means that these are very important countries for circumventing sanctions.
In addition to the sensitive issue of sanctions against Russia, one must not ignore the fact that the five Central Asian states are at least authoritarian countries.