Soon the end of the road for pension reform. After the agreement found in the CMP (Joint Joint Committee) on Wednesday, the government bill could be adopted this Thursday in Parliament, by a vote in the Senate and the National Assembly, or through a 49.3 . After an eighth day of mobilization against the text, the opposition has not yet surrendered. Motions of censure, shared initiative referendum, Constitutional Council… 20 minutes looks at the weapons that remain available to the opposition to force the executive to withdraw the text if it passes the last stage of Parliament.
1. The motion of censure
Within the Assembly, the opposition is organized. A motion of collegial censure could be tabled on Thursday. “We are working on it, it is progressing well. There are discussions taking place both with Liot (centrist group), some LRs, the Nupes, we are hopeful that there can be a cross-partisan motion of censure in all cases, especially in the event of 49.3 “, indicated Tuesday the president of the group of La France insoumise (LFI) Mathilde Panot. The elected members of the National Rally, who were not invited to co-sign this motion, have however indicated that they will vote for it. The Constitution provides for a period of forty-eight hours after the tabling of the text to organize the debates.
What impact? “Of the motions tabled, it is undoubtedly the one that has the best chance of passing”, wants to believe the deputy LFI Antoine Léaument. Seeing the Borne government fall on Thursday, however, seems unlikely. To pass, the motion must obtain the absolute majority of the members of the Assembly, that is to say at least 289 votes. A figure difficult to reach while the boss of the LR deputies, Olivier Marleix, put pressure on his troops, threatening them with a half-word of exclusion in the event of a favorable vote.
2. The RIP (Shared Initiative Referendum)
Several opposition elected officials have mentioned this track of a referendum of shared initiative. This RIP provides for the possibility of organizing a popular consultation on a bill “on the initiative of a fifth of the members of Parliament”, ie at least 185 of the 925 parliamentarians (577 deputies, 348 senators). “We have them, and so we will drop her […] It is a bill that cancels the one [du gouvernement] “, confirmed the communist deputy Stéphane Peu, Tuesday evening on BFMTV. But the text must also be supported by a tenth of the voters, or 4.87 million people, whose signatures are collected within nine months.
If the 10% threshold is reached, the Assembly and the Senate then have six months to examine the bill submitted to the RIP. If it is not examined, the President of the Republic is required to organize a referendum on the text.
What impact? The RIP is a complex procedure and has never succeeded since its introduction in the Constitution in 2008. In 2019, the proposal against the privatization of Aéroports de Paris had only collected 1.1 million supporters, far from the threshold necessary. The government had finally suspended its project due to the coronavirus crisis.
3. The Constitutional Council
Another track mentioned by the opponents of the bill, the right. “There will be several appeals to the Constitutional Council against this text if it were voted on,” said Charles de Courson, centrist deputy from the Liot group. “There is a real denial of democracy to have used a Social Security financing law to reform pensions,” he added. on BFMTV. The opposition targets the legislative vehicle chosen by the government, but also the content of the text. The left-wing senators have indicated that they will also file an appeal on the expedited procedure for debates in the Senate.
What impact? Difficult to know what the members of the Constitutional Council would do. But certain elements of the text, such as the famous “senior index”, could be invalidated because considered irrelevant for a budgetary text.
4. Continued mobilization
Within the left, it is hoped that the opposition will continue in the street if the text is adopted in Parliament. “Whatever happens on Thursday, vote or 49.3, it will be a coup against the people. This will confirm the place of social mobilization, demonstrations, but also strikes, blockages. There will be a hardening of the movement if the law passes, ”assures Antoine Léaument, LFI deputy.
What impact? If the day of demonstration this Wednesday was less important than last week, a large majority of French people still oppose the bill. The demonstrators can hope for an outcome similar to that of the CPE (first job contract) in 2005. After a long mobilization, the Villepin government bill was withdrawn despite its adoption by Parliament.