Of course, in this legislature, you should never say “never”. But let’s not overdo it: barring a huge and therefore unlikely surprise, the motions of censure tabled by the opposition following the triggering of article 49.3 last Thursday on the pension reform will not overthrow the government on Monday. Not even the famous “transpartisan” motion, headed by the respected MP for Marne Charles de Courson, centrist of the colorful Liot group. In all likelihood, there will not be enough LRs to rally for censorship to be voted on.
However, the pension campaign, supposed to be the cardinal point of Macron’s second five-year term, has been a complete failure. And recourse to Article 49.3 of the Constitution – which allows the adoption of a text without a vote – is the noisy symbol of this. Thursday, when the news had just been made official, the members of the government arrived in the Hemicycle under boos, heads bowed. Some seemed K.-O. upright. Even without censorship, the government therefore appears to be dramatically weakened. So much so that the question of its sustainability arises.
“Politics must be put back on all levels! »
The most obvious option seems to be a change of government. A ministerial adviser, who was in favor of the vote on the pension reform at all costs, wonders about the “loss of credibility” of the government following this 49.3. However, after a difficult session on Thursday, where she was limply supported, there are not many people to claim the head of Elisabeth Borne, whether at Renaissance, at MoDem or at Horizon. His passage before the deputies of the majority, after the session, apparently did some good. “I have a deep admiration for the Prime Minister. She was dignified, strong during her speech…”, remarks the same adviser, convinced that she remains the woman for the job.
We still find, among the headliners of the government, the desire for a profound change in casting, to face “the harshest and most violent political context for years”. “Faced with that, we cannot stay with civil society ministers, who have never seen a parliamentarian. We must put politics back on all levels! We can’t stay like this, with a government of 42 ministers but where only 5 are known,” an adviser got carried away. But in the event of a reshuffle, the same question arises each time under Emmanuel Macron: who? The macronie lacks a bench, structurally. And it is perhaps not at the bottom of the wave, with the prospect of going to have to face a tumultuous Assembly, that we find the most interesting profiles of ministers.
“Simple, basic”
Some then evoke the hypothesis of a resignation of Elisabeth Borne, which would be immediately renamed by Emmanuel Macron. A classic political coup when you want to turn a page at a minimum, but which has the defect of being unspectacular, not to say invisible. Hence the need for a presidential speech. In the disappointment of much of the majority to go to 49.3, there is also disappointment with the president himself. “I still find the trip around the world he has been doing for three months a bit amazing… For all of this to end with five crisis meetings in 24 hours at the Elysée Palace, plagues a ministerial adviser. We needed him in this sequence. And we rowed. »
An intervention by Emmanuel Macron seems necessary, “like an explanation of the text” in the event of a reshuffle, it is said in the entourage of Laurent Marcangeli, the head of the Horizon deputies. In the office of a prominent minister, we believe that we must return to “simple, basic” things of macronism: “you have to get into the heads of the French people of the working middle class. People who are against pension reform, who have sometimes demonstrated in the provinces, who voted for Macron but feel betrayed. “His advice: drop the institutional files or that of the end of life to focus” on the social ladder, the kids, education. The original promise of macronism is still the end of house arrest! “.
old reflexes
The centrist deputy Erwan Balanant does not necessarily say anything else when he pushes the theme of tax justice: “You have a middle class that works hard and has the impression of not earning enough while on the side, people earn a lot more ! “The Breton questions here the dogma of zero tax increases, firmly held by Bruno Le Maire in Bercy. In reality, they are quite numerous to think that it will take a change, that it would be a good signal for public opinion. Especially at the MoDem but also at Horizon, yet more to the right.
Beyond the casting and the content, some especially note that it is the way in which Emmanuel Macron and Renaissance exercise power that must change. In the oppositions, but also among the junior partners of the majority, we underline the old reflexes of absolute majority of the macronists. “They still haven’t understood that they were in a relative majority and are giving lessons to everyone,” notes an ecologist MP. During the debate on renewable energies, they explained to us how to be green. There, they explain to the right how to be right. Of course, it’s annoying. »
On this, we can’t completely disagree at Horizon and at the MoDem, who have recently challenged Renaissance’s arrogance. “We are like under the Fourth Republic. Everyone would be in difficulty with this Assembly, it must finally be taken into account, ”says the entourage of Laurent Marcangeli.
For the time being, everyone is going their own way, but everyone remains suspended: “It’s not an end of reign, but there is still something that everyone is waiting for”, notes a ministerial source. . So, any announcements from the start of the week? Nothing is less sure. Emmanuel Macron hates choosing under pressure.