Ceasefire efforts: negotiations without trust

Negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza are burdened by many contradictions and conflicting interests, says Middle East expert Bente Scheller. There is a lack of a long-term perspective – and the belief that an agreement will hold.

tagesschau.de: Negotiations on a ceasefire in the Middle East have been going on for weeks now – so far without results. The USA has built up pressure by initially presenting plans; the UN Security Council has increased it even further by calling for a ceasefire. But Israel does not appear to be making any outward movement. How far apart are Israel and Hamas at the moment in their demands for the conditions for a ceasefire?

Bente Scheller: The problem is that we can’t really see behind the scenes. It’s clear that both camps have a lot to negotiate within their own ranks about what conditions they could accept.

The question for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is: what will happen if there is a ceasefire and if the war ends? They have not presented any plans for Gaza, nor is Netanyahu’s political future guaranteed. I think that after a ceasefire, the question will be how this government is doing and how it can continue.

For Hamas, it is equally clear that it too must negotiate what conditions it can accept in order to agree to a solution while at least saving face.

tagesschau.de: What do we know about what is in the US draft ceasefire?

Scheller: We know that it contains the most important thing for civilians: a ceasefire. They urgently need it. It also concerns the more than 100 people who are still being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza. And the past few weeks have shown that hostages have been freed much more quickly through negotiations than through military action.

That is why the relatives are putting pressure on the Israeli government to find an agreement with Hamas. However, as far as we know, the draft does not say what will happen in Gaza in the long term and how the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians will be resolved.

“Netanyahu prioritizes maintaining his own power”

tagesschau.de: How interested is the Israeli government in a ceasefire now that Benny Gantz has left the war cabinet and Netanyahu is surrounded by right-wing forces?

Scheller: The right-wing forces in particular have been pushing even harder for the conflict to be resolved militarily. And that is why I think the pressure on him has grown. But there are two opposing interests here: the military interest and that of the hostages’ relatives.

We are not seeing huge demonstrations. But given the presence of so many people on the Israeli streets, it is clear that the hostage issue is important and represents a departure by Netanyahu from the Israeli government’s previous policy of always giving priority to kidnapped citizens.

Netanyahu’s government should actually try to meet both interests – to provide security and to bring the hostages home. But it is not doing that. Netanyahu is evidently putting his own retention of power, which depends on the survival of his coalition, above the welfare of the hostages.

tagesschau.de: Given his own dependence on right-wing extremist parties, can he even afford to come to an agreement with Hamas or perhaps even to accommodate Hamas and offer it something?

Scheller: Of course it must not look like that. Because for the Israeli population – and I think this is completely understandable – it is clear that it has to be about them. They feel that their security is threatened by what happened on October 7. The Hamas massacres have left a serious trauma and that is why the Israeli government must make it clear that ‘this agreement primarily represents your interests.’ This is of course difficult to implement, given the rigorous rhetoric so far against both a ceasefire and all other proposals to improve the situation for civilians.

tagesschau.de: What would an agreement have to look like in order to be able to sell it as a success, and thus as a diplomatic victory for Israel?

Scheller: In any case, it would have to be possible to get the hostages back quickly. Biden’s proposal envisages a multi-stage plan and it would have to be ensured that it is reliably implemented. I think that is the priority for Israel. But of course also that no more rockets are fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel.

“Strain on relations with the USA”

tagesschau.de: Let us also look at the other warring party – Hamas, which triggered the war with its attack on Israel and the large-scale hostage-taking. To what extent is it interested in the continuation of this war?

Scheller: We keep hearing about Hamas that it has brought them political gains. But that is not worth much if you are only living in the rubble and seeing the misery. That is why I believe that Hamas is also under pressure to ease the situation. Almost all the people living in the Gaza Strip have been displaced by this war. They are cut off from humanitarian supplies. People are starving and of course these are conditions that no one wants to live under. Things cannot go on like this. If there is an opportunity for an agreement now, there is a certain pressure on Hamas to achieve this.

tagesschau.de: What consequences would it have if an agreement failed again – for the relationship between Israel and the USA, but also for the credibility of the others, namely Egypt and the Gulf states?

Scheller: It is a strain on relations between Israel and the USA. In recent weeks we have seen how the tone has become more harsh. And of course that also affects the important role that the USA has always played for Israel. It is also a very big issue in domestic politics in the USA. That makes a big difference and explains the pressure Joe Biden has put on to try to push forward such a deal.

For the Arab states, it is difficult in a different way. There are not so many high hopes pinned on them, because no comparable established relationship is at stake. But at the same time, there is the expectation that Egypt and Qatar will do everything they can – that they will not only conduct narrow-gauge negotiations for the release of the hostages, but also ensure that there is a significant improvement in the humanitarian situation in Gaza and as complete a withdrawal of the Israeli military as possible.

But what is definitely at stake is trust in international law. We have seen that the International Court of Justice has made very clear and binding demands about what needs to change in order for the type of warfare to be acceptable under international law. So far, there is no sign of any implementation of this. It is important that pressure is maintained here. After all, international law ultimately serves to protect everyone – and that is what the international focus should be on at the moment.

“The suffering is simply unbearable”

tagesschau.de: Both parties are still caught in a stalemate, separated by maximum demands. What would have to change for the cards to be reshuffled and for there to be a chance of rapprochement?

Scheller: What is needed in any case is a willingness to accept the responsibility that each party bears for how this war is being fought and to focus on civilians. Then a great deal would already be achieved.

Because the suffering we are seeing is simply unbearable. I believe that international support is really important here. The trust between the two is minimal – and external powers are needed as guarantors.

tagesschau.de: Both warring parties are playing for time in a cruel way on a political level – but they are increasingly reaching their limits. When do you think the tipping point might be reached where both sides are really open to negotiating a ceasefire?

Scheller: The costs of the conflict are already extremely high for both Israel and the Palestinians, so I don’t know if there is such a thing as a tipping point. But it is difficult to bring negotiations to a conclusion when it is not clear where the confidence that the agreements will be kept will come from.

An important role here is played by the fact that Netanyahu, as well as members of his government, have repeatedly stated that it is not enough to release the hostages; this will not end the war. This means that it is not in Hamas’s hands alone to end the war. Of course they must release the hostages, sooner rather than later! But as long as the rhetoric is so aggressive, things will remain difficult.

It would also be crucial that a plan for the post-war period be put on the table. The Israeli government has not yet presented one. This means that the future is uncertain – and creates a feeling that one does not really know what one is getting into in the long term. In the short term, a ceasefire is absolutely important for everyone affected by this war. But a long-term perspective should actually be linked to it – and that is missing.

The interview was conducted by Jasper Steinlein, tagesschau.de