CDU chairmanship
Braun, Röttgen and Merz: who is now dangerous to whom
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chancellery Minister Helge Braun (both CDU)
© Kay Nietfeld // Picture Alliance
There are already two, soon probably three: the race for the CDU chairmanship is gaining momentum. The applicants position themselves. Everyone is faced with a tricky question: who is targeting whom?
Anyone who had hoped to erase this monstrous word from their linguistic usage after the federal election campaign must now be bitterly disappointed: The “Triell” is booming again, Helge Braun has raised his hand for the CDU party chairmanship.
Everyone had expected a duel, now it will be a three-way battle: While Norbert Röttgen and Friedrich Merz were still sorting their way out, the outgoing Chancellery Minister stepped out of the candidate’s backdrop with a bang – and put down a political hussar piece.
Because Braun’s surprising application has the potential to initiate an internal party election campaign with an unpredictable outcome – a trial in contrast to a duel inevitably raises the question: Who takes whom? And who is dangerous to whom?
“If Braun is elected, it rounds off Merkel’s term of office”
Norbert Röttgen promptly came out of cover when Braun’s candidacy became official on Thursday. Just minutes later, he announced a statement for Friday morning in which he would finally turn rumors into facts. The quick reaction speaks volumes: Röttgen, the self-declared representative “the modern center” appears, sees his positioning in the race for the party chairmanship apparently threatened by Braun.
The “middle”, this diffuse place between the political spectra, was appointed for a long time by the party and government leader Angela Merkel. Loyal to her side: her Chancellery Minister and follower Helge Braun.
He could position himself as a credible alternative to Röttgen and as a clear counterweight to Friedrich Merz for the CDU members, who are voting for the first time on the party chairmanship. Merz, darling of the Conservatives and membership base, only hinted at his candidacy (very clearly). But he, too, should ponder the new competitor.
It is true that Braun and Röttgen in particular, as two “liberal” candidates, could take each other’s votes. But the supposed favorite Merz could be forced into a runoff election – which he could lose. Because once again the CDU is about a directional battle.
“With these three candidates the question is: How much influence does Angela Merkel have in the party,” says political scientist Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne star. “If Braun is elected, it rounds off Merkel’s term of office. If Merz or Röttgen are elected, it is a break with the Merkel years.”
Trump and Mortgage
In the triple constellation, Braun stands like no other for a continuation of the middle course in the tried and tested Merkel manner. A trump card, but also a mortgage: For the party chairmen Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Armin Laschet, this path did not prove to be profitable – the CDU members could therefore speak out in favor of a course shift that promises a new profile.
Appearance: Merz. He is extremely popular among CDU supporters and stands out as a conservative candidate who polarizes the grassroots. And that actually determines the next chairman, even if the result still has to be formally confirmed at a party congress. Merz is now likely to try for the third time to end the Merkel era as the new party leader. Will he prevail this time?
This speaks for itself: The signs point to a new beginning, at least that’s how Jens Spahn interpreted them. The still-Minister of Health announced on Wednesday that he would not stand for candidacy, since it is now time for a fresh start in the CDU and “not for former members of the government”. That can also be read as a small swipe in the direction of Braun.
Braun is not given any great chances, but his candidacy is not hopeless. He is a member of the party that has contributed to the CDU in many ways: initially as district and district chairman, later as chairman of the Hesse state group and as a member of the Bundestag. A renewal of the party at all levels could be trusted because he knows all levels. In addition, the silent power manager on Merkel’s side is not suspected of jostling into the limelight – while Röttgen and Merz are reaching for power for the second and third time.
Duel, triell – or quartel?
In addition, developments are emerging that could be an advantage for Braun and a disadvantage for its competition. The Merkel course may be decried, elections can still be won with it – even if by others: The victorious SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz never missed an opportunity to present himself as her legacy.
In view of the worsening corona situation in Germany, there is also a certain Merkel melancholy. The pandemic plans of the traffic light parties seem discouraged to many, the calls for an emphatically cautious pandemic management are getting louder – and Braun, who incidentally worked as a doctor in anesthesia before his career as a politician, positions itself clearly in the “team caution”. Alone: As head of the Chancellery, he was part of it from the start.
“The question will be whether Braun and Röttgen as two ‘liberal’ candidates take each other’s votes,” said political scientist Jäger, “or Merz and Röttgen as two ‘away-from-Merkel’ candidates.” It depends on how the candidates portray themselves and how they are defined by the others in the next few weeks.
In any case, the vote will “give a deep look into the current mood of the CDU,” said Jäger. “So everything comes down to the question of whether Merkel’s candidate Braun will be elected or whether the members will also settle Merkel’s term in office in the vote.”
Everyone expected a duel, a three-way battle is likely to be fought – on which Merkel casts a long shadow. Duel, triell – or is it a quarter?