But why don’t the French have babies anymore?

The French no longer make babies… or almost. On the occasion of the launch of the new census campaign on January 19, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) presented its demographic report for the year 2022 on Tuesday. Pay particular attention to the number of births, which in 2022 reached a historically low level.

Indeed, since 1946 and the creation of INSEE, the French have never had so little procreation. Only 723,000 babies were born in France according to the latest estimates made by the Institute, ie 19,000 less than the previous year (-2.6%). Nothing exceptional though. If 2021 had seen a slight increase in activity in maternity wards, attributed to the first confinement, this development is in line with the trend of the past decade with a constant drop in births since 2010.

An exceptional drop

“What is exceptional is the regularity and the length over time of this drop”, comments Didier Breton, professor of demography at the University of Strasbourg and associate researcher at the National Institute of Demography. What was called, a few years ago, the “French singularity” in Europe, that is to say a fertility rate close to two children per woman, is slowly waning since this figure has fallen below 1.8 (1.796) in 2022.

Such inverted peaks had already taken place in the past, births had fallen below 750,000 per year in the mid-1970s and mid-1990s. “It was a change in the fertility regime”, specifies Didier Breton. Understand: a generational gap for women of childbearing age. A phenomenon that was also predictable for the mid-2010s.

Covid, Ukraine, inflation and global warming

But what is surprising is that unlike previous episodes, this decline continues over time. If studies are underway to understand this event, some answers seem obvious to the professor of demography: “The 2020s are experiencing major upheavals. There is a conjunction of fears capable of slowing down the birth rate. Covid in 2020, war in Ukraine in 2021, to which must be added a worsening of the job market situation and global warming which is felt more each year.

Ingredients that do not make you want to go to the pan according to Didier Breton: “The decision to have a child is linked, most of the time, to an optimistic vision of the long-term future. It’s complicated for parents to tell themselves that they may be giving birth to a child in such a world. In a situation that could still deteriorate. »

The birth curve in France – Insee

For the researcher, we can draw a parallel with the current job market, which is struggling to recruit. Young people, especially the least educated, with no prospects, find it difficult to be part of the long term, to commit.

Another possible reason is economic downgrading. Among women of childbearing age, there are fewer births among graduates who do not have a job that pays them commensurate with their qualifications, unlike women without a diploma and those with high incomes.

Postponement or abandonment?

Can this decline continue? “It is very difficult to predict, answers Muriel Barlet, head of the demography department of INSEE, we do not yet know if it is a question of abandonment or postponement of the child project. To explain this vagueness, she puts forward figures: “50-year-old women have a total fertility rate of 2 on average. For those born in 1982, still of childbearing age, that figure is 1.992. So we don’t yet know if this will result in a drop in final fertility. »

“What is visible is that when the fertility rate fell to 1.63 in 1995, the average age for having a child was 29 years old. He is now 31 years old. Which means that little by little, the margin is reduced, ”says Didier Breton, however. A margin that would not be compensated by immigration according to the researcher: “The overfertility observed in these populations would not be enough to raise the rate above 2.”

Why fear a similar scenario among several of our European neighbors with a drop in population? This is conceivable according to the demographer: “The natural balance [différence entre les naissances vivantes et les décès] is the engine of demography. If it runs out of steam, we could therefore experience the same fate as Italy, Poland or Greece.

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