The times in which the parties could rely on a stable base of regular voters are apparently finally over. According to a large-scale study by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, which is to be published this Monday, with the exception of the AfD, the supporters of all other parties now consist of alternate voters who can also imagine voting for other parties. For the study with the somewhat cumbersome title “Measurement of the electorate before the federal election in 2021”, more than 8,000 people were asked between July and December 2020 about political attitudes, electoral motives and party preferences.
Pre-determinations by the parties are not appreciated
It has been shown that the traditional camp formation (like here red-green, there black-yellow) is still present, but at the same time the willingness to vote for a party from the other political camp has increased significantly. For example, the switching activity between the Union and the Greens has expanded.
For the parties this means that they have to become more open to different political alliances, just like their voters are. “The parties must be careful both with the establishment and with the exclusion of coalitions,” said the chairman of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the former President of the Bundestag Norbert Lammert Süddeutsche Zeitung.
According to the study, after the ability to solve political problems and convincing substantive positions, the social orientation of a party is the most important motive for voting. Overall, 91 percent of those surveyed attach great importance to the fact that the party of their choice is socially oriented, this desire is strongest among supporters of the left (98 percent), the social component plays the least role for FDP voters (77 percent). “One of the most pronounced expectations of voters is the desire for a reliable welfare state,” says Norbert Lammert.
Especially for the Union as the greatest political force, this finding could be an occasion to reconsider its election program. Because according to the analysis of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on the financial effects of the election manifestos of the parties, which the SZ presented a few days ago, the Union’s plans would greatly relieve high earners in particular.
The desire for a conservative profile is overestimated
The CDU and CSU, on the other hand, have little to worry about about repeated calls from parts of the party for a sharper conservative profile. According to the study, the desire for a conservative orientation is in the penultimate place in the ranking of the electoral motives, even if it is more pronounced among Union supporters than among voters of other parties. “The conservative issue,” says Norbert Lammert, “has always been grossly overestimated by minorities in the party.”
While the supporters of the other parties are very close to each other on many of the questions raised, the answers from the AfD camp are almost everywhere out of the ordinary. The study also makes it clear that the AfD will continue to remain an avoided outsider on the political stage. 87 percent of those surveyed who reject the AfD do not want “their” party to work with the AfD. An enlightening signal to those parts of the CDU in the east that can imagine such cooperation.