Bundestag election: SPD and Union on par, Greens in 3rd place

The SPD and the Union are in a neck-and-neck race in the federal elections. the ARD forecast sees both at 25 percent. The Greens improve to 15, the FDP is 11 percent. The AfD remains in double digits, the Left Party must tremble.

After 16 years of uninterrupted power, the Union must fear for its position as the strongest political force in the federal government. In the federal elections, the CDU / CSU and Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet and the SPD and Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz have an exciting head-to-head race.

After ARD forecast from Infratest dimap reaches the SPD 25 percent. It was catching up, and in July it was 15 percent in surveys. The SPD has also improved significantly compared to the 2017 federal election. At that time she got her worst result to date with 20.5 percent.

The SPD campaign was completely tailored to Scholz, who had already been chosen as candidate for chancellor in August 2020. During the election campaign, the party benefited from its comparatively high level of competence and popularity and its image as a reliable crisis manager, vice chancellor and finance minister. In terms of content, the SPD primarily focused on its former core issues such as social justice, minimum wages and higher taxes for the wealthy.

Union is losing a lot

The ruling since 2005 union has to cope with a historic crash, but can still hope for first place. The CDU and CSU together come to 25 percent. With this, the Union clearly undercuts its 2017 negative record – at that time, it ran again with incumbent Angela Merkel and reached 32.9 percent.

The Union entered this federal election campaign without an official bonus. Laschet was only able to assert himself as candidate for chancellor late after internal power struggles. He was never able to completely dispel doubts about his suitability, and his polling ratings remained mediocre. The Union barely succeeded in setting the accents in terms of content; instead, its election campaign was repeatedly overshadowed by personnel discussions. In the final spurt of the election campaign, it intensified the attacks on the political opponents – above all the SPD – declared the election to be the choice of direction and conjured up the danger of a left-wing government.

The SPD and Union also have the option to take up the Chancellery as second place, as the strongest party does not automatically provide the Chancellor. However, the strongest political force is likely to derive a mandate to form a government for itself.

Greens are growing strongly

the Greens rise to the third strongest political force in Germany. With 15 percent, they miss their election target of a green-led government. Given their high expectations at the beginning of the year, they would therefore be among the losers in the election. In terms of the 2017 election results, however, they are among the big winners – at that time they were the smallest parliamentary group with 8.9 percent.

Inspired by the high poll numbers at the beginning of the year and the high priority given to their core topic of climate protection, the Greens entered the race for the first time with a candidate for Chancellor. But technical and personal mistakes by Annalena Baerbock cost her credibility. In terms of content, the Greens tried to position themselves more broadly in order to open up to other groups of voters. The main focus remained the environmental and climate protection, here they reach loud Infratest dimap also the highest competence values. The Greens now have the best prospects of being able to co-rule in the future – several constellations are possible.

FDP behind the Greens

the FDP can only grow slightly and thus falls short of her expectations. The party with top candidate Christian Lindner comes to 11 percent – after 10.7 percent in the last federal election. In the election campaign, the FDP relied on its core competencies in economic and tax policy. She clearly opposed tax increases and promoted innovations instead of bans on climate protection. The FDP is likely to play an important role in the formation of a government; after the explorations with the Union and Greens that were broken off in 2017, the party would definitely like to co-govern this time. Preferably with the Union.

AfD is deteriorating

the AfD loses percentage points, but can maintain its double-digit result from 2017. At 11 percent, however, it is losing its position as the third strongest political force in the Bundestag. Four years ago, she got 12.6 percent of the vote. This time she competed with the top duo Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla. The AfD did not have a central election campaign topic, it positioned itself as an opponent of the state corona measures, stuck to its anti-migration course and doubted man-made climate change. All parties have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, so it will remain in the opposition role.

Left party must tremble

the Left Party originally aimed for a double-digit election result, but now has to worry about entering parliament. the ARD forecast sees it at 5 percent. In 2017, the left still got 9.2 percent of the vote. The top duo Dietmar Bartsch and Janine Wissler did not succeed in getting the party out of the polls. In terms of content, the Left focused on classic social issues, and it also set itself more ambitious goals than the Greens when it came to climate protection. Foreign policy objectives such as the dissolution of NATO and its no to Bundeswehr missions abroad, however, hardly make it a reliable coalition partner for other parties. Nevertheless, the left is vehemently promoting red-green-red.

Who will rule in the future? Not clear

Which party alliance Germany will rule in the future and under whose chancellorship is unclear for the time being. Complicated and presumably protracted explorations and coalition talks are expected. More alliances are possible than ever. Most likely, an SPD-led government with the Greens and FDP or a Union-led government with the Greens and FDP. A new grand coalition would come into question as a two-party alliance, but this is unlikely for several reasons. Other conceivable options: red-green-red (if the left makes the leap into parliament) or the SPD and Union optionally with the FDP or the Greens as a third partner.

In any case, this federal election is a turning point. The Merkel era ends after 16 years – something new begins. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, no incumbent ran for another four years in the Chancellery. With their leaders, three parties could justifiably hope for future governance. The corona pandemic did not dominate the election campaign thematically, but of course had an impact on it. Also in the way of voting. A record of postal voters is expected, which could make the forecast and the projections more inaccurate and also delay the final result. A total of 60.4 million people were called to vote. In 2017, the voter turnout was 76.2 percent.

Two federal states were also elected today: the House of Representatives was elected in Berlin, and a new state parliament was elected in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.