Bundestag election: Deep fall of the Union despite catching up

According to the forecast, the Union and the SPD are on par. It is already clear: for the CDU / CSU it is the worst result in a federal election. The SPD can improve mainly thanks to its candidate for Chancellor Scholz.

The prognosis does not provide any information as to whether the Union or the SPD will be ahead in the end. It shows that the CDU and CSU have managed to catch up after the deep fall in the polls. But that does not change the fact that it is the worst Bundestag election result in the history of the Union. The fall remained deep.

Bad grades in tax and foreign policy for the CDU

The losses for women are almost twice as high as for men. The Merkel factor has a negative impact here. Otherwise, the result is not only a penalty for Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, but also a miserable testimony to the political work of the Union in recent years.

The loss of competence is dramatic. Business literacy alone drops by 25 points. In addition, bad grades in tax and foreign policy. If you are looking for a reason for the bitter defeat of the Union, then it lies here: The confidence that the CDU and CSU can govern well has been lost.

Scholz does it for the SPD

The SPD is recovering from its negative record in 2017. Olaf Scholz had the greatest personal pull among the top candidates in this election campaign. Above all, a portion of the newly acquired SPD voters cite it as the most important motive for voting. However, this is not associated with any noticeable gains in competence for the party.

The competence value of social justice, which is central to the SPD, increases by two points to 40 percent, but remains historically the second lowest. Scholz and his party score points with people over 60 and over 70. Here they brought traditional Union voters to their home, for whom social issues such as a secure pension were particularly important.

The bottom line: The stronger candidate with only a small increase in skills, that’s enough for a significant improvement in the SPD compared to 2017. Whether it’s enough to win the election, will probably only show the count.