Michel Barnier expressed grave concerns in the National Assembly about the current budget challenges, warning that censure votes could worsen economic and social issues. Two motions of censure are set for discussion, one supported by the National Rally and the left. If passed, these could halt essential budget measures, impacting various sectors, including defense and agriculture, while potentially increasing tax burdens on households. The government warns of significant repercussions, including the suspension of key initiatives for 2025.
Budget Concerns and the Impending Censure Votes
Michel Barnier raised serious concerns before the National Assembly, stating that the current budget situation is not only financially challenging but also presents significant economic and social difficulties. He warned that censorship would exacerbate these issues, making the situation even more dire. On Wednesday at 4 p.m., the National Assembly will deliberate on two motions of censure, one filed by the left and the other by the National Rally (RN), triggered by Barnier’s invocation of Article 49.3 regarding the Social Security budget. To pass, these motions require an absolute majority, which stands at 288 votes, taking into account two vacant seats.
Potential Consequences of Censure
The RN has pledged its support for the left’s motion, which is set to be discussed first due to garnering more signatures (185). This collaboration signifies a total of 325 deputies backing the censure, putting the government in a precarious position. The government has been vocal about the potential fallout of an adopted censure motion. In a bid to maintain state continuity, the government could enact a special law to continue tax collection. The organic law governing finance laws (LOLF) would then permit the issuance of decrees for “minimum credits” essential for public service operations, essentially ensuring that the 2024 budget remains in effect.
Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin cautioned that extending the 2024 Budget could lead to approximately 380,000 additional French households facing income tax, as the scale would not adjust for inflation. Moreover, 17 million households would see increased tax burdens. Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, emphasized that a censure vote would jeopardize a €3.3 billion increase in the defense budget, with tangible repercussions for military personnel and defense industries. This includes the inability to raise military salaries, recruit an additional 700 staff, or finance important modernization initiatives.
Additionally, Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard noted that farmers would bear the brunt of these consequences. The censure could halt budget increases for the Ministries of Justice and the Interior, jeopardizing anticipated measures beneficial to farmers, such as the new pension calculation method slated for 2026. Genevard stressed that the repercussions of censure would significantly impact the agricultural sector during a government inquiry session.
Saint-Martin also highlighted the potential abandonment of new tax measures, including share buyback taxation and contributions from large corporations. He warned that without the PLFSS, Social Security’s deficit could rise by over €10 billion. The minister in charge of disability, Charlotte Parmentier Lecocq, pointed out that several expected initiatives, such as full wheelchair reimbursements, would be put on hold, amounting to a €270 million budget that aimed to support 50,000 individuals with disabilities.
In summary, should the censure pass, all measures outlined in the 2025 budget, including pension revaluations, recruitment of additional personnel, and various social initiatives, would be suspended. Renaud Muselier, president of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region, listed the numerous areas that would suffer, stating that “all sectors will be losers” if the censure is approved. Minister of Economy, Antoine Armand, echoed this sentiment, confirming that the censure would result in no victories for the French people or businesses.