Work on the first exploratory tunnel for the Brenner Base Tunnel began in 2008, and then it only took until this November before a tunnel boring machine called Serena drove the first main tube to the border between Italy and Austria. The latter, by the way, 1450 meters below the mountain ridge, but state borders are probably so deep that in the center of the earth every state borders on every other, which in turn would make all transit traffic superfluous. As for the near-surface transit traffic across the Alps, there is something to report these days that the ministries of transport and the state-owned railway companies from Germany, Austria and Italy would like to call a “breakthrough” if this word were used in conjunction with a Tunnel would not arouse false expectations. But Pat Cox, who was previously President of the EU Parliament and is now the commissioner for the transport corridor between Scandinavia and the Mediterranean, speaks of a “milestone” for transport planning in the EU. Because Germany, Austria and Italy can substantiate the necessity of the whole major project for the very first time with a joint traffic forecast only 13 years after the start of construction. However, that doesn’t mean much for the controversial northern access to the Brenner Pass around Rosenheim.
It is true that Deutsche Bahn, which published the “first coordinated train traffic forecasts for the Brenner Corridor Munich – Verona”, calls it all “a welcome premiere”. Nevertheless, it has to adhere to the national forecasts from the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan. The joint forecast for 2040 could go into this at some point. The many opponents of the second access route through the Bavarian Inn Valley, initially estimated at seven billion euros, will still not accept it as the reliable proof of need that they have been demanding for so long. Because the “Brenner Corridor Platform” from the three ministries, the three railways and the tunnel construction company comes, unsurprisingly, to the same conclusion that they have all come to individually so far: that the two additional tracks will be needed in Bavaria, even if Long- Covid is slowing growth and the political pressure to push more goods onto the rails is limited.