Breakdowns in the Bundestag elections: who has to tremble in a new election in Berlin


FAQ

Status: 10/21/2022 4:56 p.m

Ironically, in the capital Berlin, the federal election was marked by glitches. Now the traffic light wants to be re-voted in 431 districts. what are the plans And who has to tremble in a new election?

By Tina Handel, ARD Capital Studio

What are the plans of the traffic light?

No complete new election, but repetition in 431 of over 2,200 polling stations – the plans for the federal election fall far short of what is being discussed for the election to the House of Representatives. There, the state constitutional court indicated that it could vote for a complete repetition in mid-November.

That’s because the Election Review Board is likely to be more lenient in defining what a “voting error” is. “Around 70 percent of the voters cast their votes. Their valid vote must also be respected,” says a joint statement by the traffic light parliamentary groups. This means that the vast majority could vote normally – to declare these votes invalid would be too much trust.

The CDU parliamentary group, on the other hand, continues to advocate extensive new elections and accuses the traffic light parties of making decisions based on political calculations and with pocket calculators in hand. “It borders on arbitrariness,” criticizes Patrick Schnieder, the Union’s chairman on the Election Review Committee.

How to deal with the Berlin breakdown election?

In Berlin, on September 26, 2021, the Bundestag, state parliament and local councils were re-elected at the same time. A referendum was also held. There were chaotic scenes: some ballots were missing or incorrect, and in many places votes were cast well after 6 p.m. Federal Returning Officer Georg Thiel later saw a “complete systematic failure of the election organization”.

About a possible repetition of the House of Representatives election the Berlin State Constitutional Court decides on November 16th.

On November 7, the Bundestag’s Election Review Committee will deal with repeating the Bundestag elections, and the Bundestag will make a decision on November 11. It is considered likely that it will happen as proposed by the traffic light parties: a repeat of the election in 431 of the 2,256 electoral districts in Berlin – with a first and second vote.

Is the parliamentary group strength of the left in the Bundestag at risk?

The left won two of its three direct mandates in Berlin – and only with these three victories was it able to sit in the Bundestag despite an election result of 4.9 percent in parliamentary group strength. This goes back to the so-called basic mandate clause. If the vote is taken as the traffic light is now suggesting, the left can remain relaxed.

Because: The two winners, Gregor Gysi and Gesine Lötzsch, won their mandates by a clear margin. And in their Treptow-Köpenick and Lichtenberg constituencies, new elections could only be held in individual polling stations. According to the draft resolution for the Election Review Committee, there were only a few electoral errors there. Mathematically, it would be impossible for other applicants to overtake the left-wing direct candidates.

who needs to tremble

It could be more exciting in Reinickendorf and Pankow – with an impact on prominent Bundestag mandates. “There were a particularly large number of electoral errors in Pankow,” says Johannes Fechner, who represents the SPD on the Bundestag’s Election Review Committee. “And there is also a clear mandate relevance.” Stefan Gelbhaar from the Greens has so far held the direct mandate for Pankow. SPD competitor Klaus Mindrup got four percentage points less. Since 142 of the 175 polling stations in Pankow are to be elected again, the direct mandate for the Greens here would be vulnerable.

Monika Grütters’ CDU direct mandate in Reinickendorf, which she won by only 1.4 percentage points, is also shaky. According to the traffic light plans, there should also be extensive new elections there. Monika Grütters would be the first on the CDU state list to be covered in the event of a loss.

Various effects on the state lists of the parties are also conceivable: If the SPD gets two more direct mandates in Berlin, for example, other members of the state list could be kicked out of parliament again.

What effect could this have on voter turnout?

75 percent of Berliners took part in the 2021 federal election. Many doubt whether these values ​​will be reached again in the constituencies in question: Who should be motivated when the numbers in Parliament will hardly change? Perhaps Berlin is even facing a kind of ghost election, without much campaigning: “It would be possible that the parties would post far less posters if it were repeated,” suspects Johannes Fechner. “Especially in constituencies where only a few polling stations are used again.”

The parties would have to compete with the same candidates and lists as in 2021. It could also be exciting to see whether some politicians have now taken a different career path and are not involved in the election campaign at all.

Who should vote?

Since there are more than six months between the first election day and the repetition, an updated voters’ register would have to be drawn up. Anyone who has just moved to the constituency or has just turned 18 should also vote. However, the polling stations do not have to be in the same buildings as the first time, and the teams of helpers will also be newly formed.

Is it problematic that politicians decide about this?

Even the MPs involved see it this way: “We decide on the future of the mandate of colleagues,” says SPD politician Fechner. It is also evident how much the parties are already squinting at their own possible gains or losses: the traffic light factions originally wanted to vote again in significantly fewer polling stations, perhaps also because the Greens did not want to lose tight direct mandates and the FDP is currently sagging in polls . The turnout should also cause concern for the Berlin party associations: If it falls significantly, then fewer MPs from Berlin could sit in the Bundestag.

Only pressure from the Berlin state constitutional court, which often rated the conditions on election day as “unacceptable”, prompted the SPD, Greens and FDP in the Bundestag to aim for a repetition in more than 400 polling stations.

“We’re already asking ourselves: Shouldn’t the Federal Constitutional Court decide right away?” says Johannes Fechner. “Then it would be comparable to the state level, where the courts also decide.” So far there has never been such a serious case as Berlin, says Fechner. Now one sees reason to also discuss in the Bundestag whether the election test should not be set up differently and more distant from politics.

What schedule is likely?

The Election Review Committee wants to decide on its recommendations on November 7th, the Bundestag could follow on November 11th. There is then a 60-day objection period. It is very likely that those affected will lodge a complaint and the whole thing will end up at the Federal Constitutional Court. In politics, many expect that the judges will need several months to make a decision.

That means: A repetition together with a possible parliamentary election in February 2023 seems impossible. It is questionable whether it will still work in 2023. After all, the election still has to be prepared. Some politicians are already in a small circle in favor of merging with the European elections in spring 2024.

source site