The world has not been as close to the nuclear abyss as it is right now since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. US President Joe Biden even said the word “Armageddon” on Thursday evening, the biblical last stand, commonly a word for the end of the world. “We haven’t faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Biden said in New York, where he attended a Democratic fundraising event. Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, which marks its 60th anniversary these days, American presidents have avoided publicly discussing nuclear end-scenarios.
Now Biden has again alarmed the world community with his clear words. A week ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to defend Russian territory “by all means”, including the newly annexed areas in southern and eastern Ukraine. And he had ominously added that it was “not a bluff”. Since then, American experts have been discussing whether Putin could actually launch a nuclear provocation – for example by detonating a small, so-called tactical nuclear weapon in the air over Ukraine.
Biden is convinced that Putin is serious. “He doesn’t joke when he talks about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his army is clearly not up to the task,” Biden said. He knows Putin “quite well,” he noted, and has “spent quite a bit of time with him.”
Most recently, the White House had tried to relax the situation in terms of communication
Biden is a transatlantic with decades of experience who is intimately familiar with both Europe and Russia, as well as with the Cold War and nuclear deterrent tactics. Even before the war in Ukraine, the US President repeatedly warned of scenarios that often occurred later; even before Russia attacked, Biden had predicted it in clear words.
However, Biden has repeatedly pointed to the danger of a chemical or biological warfare, which has not yet begun. And in recent days, the White House seemed to want to relax the situation communicatively, spreading the reading that there are no signs that Russia is making concrete preparations for the use of nuclear weapons.
But Putin increasingly has his back against the wall. Ukraine is retaking occupied areas in the east of the country and driving demoralized Russians to flee. Russian troops are also under pressure in the south. The mobilization, with which Putin recruited another 300,000 soldiers for his campaign in Ukraine, triggered protests in his own country. Tens of thousands of Russian men have fled the threat of being drafted into the war.
These problems now appear to be having an impact in the Kremlin, too. The US intelligence services circulated information on Friday that a member of the innermost circle of power had directly criticized Putin over the war in Ukraine — an event that the intelligence services considered significant enough to inform Joe Biden about it.
The US has around 5,400 nuclear warheads, slightly fewer than Russia
In this phase of maximum pressure on Putin, Biden is showing steadfastness on the one hand and a willingness to negotiate on the other. “I don’t think you can just use a tactical nuclear weapon without it leading to Armageddon,” Biden said Thursday. He had chosen a private occasion for the Democrats for his comments, but it was clear that the US President was sending a clear message to the Russian President: The American arsenal is ready for counterattacks if Putin in any way in his war of aggression against Ukraine should resort to nuclear weapons.
The White House had previously warned the Kremlin “directly and specifically” if Russia chose “that dark road,” as Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan put it. The White House has not made public what the exact consequences are. With his comments, Biden now gives the impression of a strategy of maximum nuclear deterrence, in which the USA threatens Russia with a corresponding response in the event of any use of nuclear weapons. The US has around 5,400 nuclear warheads, roughly fewer than Russia. In both countries, around 900 missiles should be immediately ready for combat – both are enough for multiple Armageddon.
At the same time, Biden also signaled to Putin on Thursday that he was looking for a “way out” for him. “We’re trying to figure out what his way out is,” Biden said. So far he has always pointed out that Ukraine must decide whether a negotiated solution at the end of the war is possible. But Biden doesn’t seem to be counting on that: he has just increased the loan for arms deliveries to Kyiv by another $12 billion.