Vladimir Putin is a shrewd tactician who wants to impose a problem on Europe and the USA that is actually not one: he wants to rearrange the security architecture of the continent. This architecture is reasonably good. Nobody can seriously doubt the peaceful nature of the states of Europe. The armed forces of all European nations pose no threat to anyone. Even the USA as a European guaranteeing power has become world-weary in the opinion of even Russian or Chinese analysts.
But now the Russian President comes and claims that his country is being threatened. He speaks of missiles and troop transfers as if there were any other nation besides Russia that has developed and deployed medium-range weapons and positions a hundred thousand soldiers on the border with its western neighbor. Apparently, Vladimir Putin went to a cabinet of mirrors for his staging: Whatever dangers he perceives – in truth he can only see himself.
US President Joe Biden referred to Putin’s threat in two phone calls. For this reason, some accuse him of being pissed off and kicking things quietly. In fact, Biden wants to prevent a renewed invasion of Ukraine and had to respond to the extortion because the Russian troop deployment made the danger of war appear likely. At least the signals were so threatening that no one could suspect a bluff.
Putin has already achieved his first goal: the USA accepted the production and had to accept Moscow’s arguments. The states of Europe play no role in Putin’s plan, he wants to see them divided. The Minsk peace process, a European, even German invention, is in a coma.
Putin has jumped a long way, but has not landed yet
Now the second phase of Operation Security Architecture begins, in which Putin wants to resurrect the logic of the Cold War, including zones of influence – and Biden has to defend the sovereignty of the states of Europe. Putin is pursuing his goal loudly, right down to an already formulated text of the contract that looks like a dictation. Biden insists on quiet talks because he only has to convey one clear message to Putin, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz put in lightly ciphered in his New Year’s address: Europe is a continent of sovereign states, the USA is indispensable for security, and border violations are non-negotiable.
Because the performances are so irreconcilable, the tactics of negotiations and public staging are of great importance. Biden has given his line: an attack on Ukraine would result in a massive break with Russia, which Europe cannot refuse to accept. Everything else is treated confidentially, in other words: weathered, because there is no reason for Europe, like the USA, to question its security architecture.
Now the game is on, Putin has jumped a long way but has not landed yet, he is profiting from the confusion. Biden seeks the order of the conversation and the confrontation in silence, because the conflict can definitely not be de-escalated in public. However, Putin’s goal will not be de-escalation. He benefits most when the conflicts smolder. It was like that in Georgia and Ukraine. And now it is the turn of Europe as a whole.