Belarus border: Ukraine worried about Russian troops

In the conflict with Russia, Ukraine worries about massive Russian troop movements. According to the secret service, there are around 92,000 Russian soldiers, tanks and heavy equipment on the border with Belarus.

The war in Donbass has now lasted more than seven years. Russian troop movements in the border area with Ukraine worry many. Basically, the situation could escalate on a daily basis, on the part of Russia or the rebels who are supported by Russia, says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj.

There were already more Russian maneuvers at the border in the spring, and he now assesses the situation in a similar way: “This is happening because they want to demonstrate to us and also to the Western intelligence services that there is a gathering of troops. We are also monitoring more technical units”, so Volodymyr. “They bring technology and then pull staff back so that we can see that technology there too. So there is a risk.”

At least 92,000 soldiers on the border with Belarus

According to the Defense Ministry and the secret service, there are around 92,000 Russian soldiers as well as tanks and heavy equipment on the border with Belarus – near the Russian city of Yelnja and around 250 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.

Mykola Sunhurowskyi from the independent Razumkov Center in Kiev even thinks up to 98,000 Russian soldiers are possible. A total of more than 40 offensive combat groups are stationed in the border area, as well as artillery and air force units. And there is administration and logistics on site.

Such a large army is not sent out for no reason, says military expert Sunhurowskyi. “This troop movement is either an attempt to mislead foreign intelligence services or, under this guise, to concentrate forces in places that Russia considers to be the most important directions,” Sunhurowskyi said. These are actually well known: the temporarily conquered parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Mariupol, and also the Crimea, where a fairly large offensive army group was formed.

Russia rejects allegations

Moscow rejects all allegations. However, one could not rule out possible provocations – in connection with information from Ukrainian and Western intelligence services. These could be suitable to accuse Russia of an attack on Ukraine, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitrij Peskow.

The Ukrainian Mykola Sunhurowskyi sees the Russian president as a political calculation. “By strengthening the forces on the border with Ukraine, Putin is testing how willing the West would be to seriously react,” Sunhurowskyi said. “And on the other hand, he is increasing the tension in order to join the mediators’ club. That means, he wants to force US President Biden to make concessions.”

For example, in the border dispute with Belarus, the controversial commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline, the existing EU and US sanctions against Belarus and Russia or the idle negotiations on the Donbass. After the maneuvers in the spring, Russia did not withdraw Russian technical units from there and simply transported them further: to the occupied territories around Donetsk and Luhansk, according to human rights activist Pavlo Lysnjanskyj on the Ukrainian state broadcaster Dom.

Truce does not last

“They wanted to train reservists and mobilize workers to put weapons in their hands and send them to war. But they don’t succeed because people don’t leave, they leave the area to work in other countries,” so Lysnjanskyj. “They see that there are fewer resources and are deliberately bringing Russian military there so that they can invade Ukraine and fight at hour X. I don’t want to increase the tension, but we see all of this there, we see these processes there.”

There has been an official ceasefire in Donbass since the middle of last year, but it doesn’t deserve the name. For around a month, however, there have been significantly more exchanges of fire, as well as dead and injured, than before. The OSCE mission to Ukraine also counted more violations of the ceasefire. On one day at the end of November there were almost 800 in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

There is no panic, but the Russian troop movements are being taken very seriously in Ukraine, including by the military expert Mykola Sunhurowskyi: “Some pieces of information indicate that Russia is preparing seriously. And if the Kremlin does not manage to ‘peacefully’ close Ukraine to Ukraine destabilize, then he opts for a military scenario, namely a large-scale offensive, which we don’t want. And I think it’s not just us. ”