François Bayrou plans to accelerate budget discussions in the Assembly, using the 49.3 constitutional provision to push for the approval of the state budget and social security measures. While seeking to avoid censure, he highlights the urgency of budget passage, emphasizing national stability. With potential opposition from the RN and PS, Bayrou aims to navigate the challenges ahead, addressing key issues like pensions and assisted dying, while maintaining focus on critical national concerns.
The 49.3 Strategy: A Path Forward for Budget Approval
François Bayrou is set to expedite discussions in the Assembly starting Monday, aiming to swiftly advance the adoption of both the state budget and social security measures. This move, however, places him once again in the spotlight of potential censure, just weeks after his appointment at Matignon.
In a candid conversation with La Tribune Dimanche, the Prime Minister shared his plan to invoke this constitutional provision, which holds his government’s accountability, based on the findings from the joint parliamentary commission regarding the 2025 state budget. This draft remains pending approval as of early February, two months following the downfall of the Barnier administration.
After reaching a compromise with the government coalition and making concessions to the Socialist Party to avert censure, Bayrou emphasized the urgency of passing the budget. “Our nation cannot afford to be without a budget,” he stated.
Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin confirmed that the government intends to uphold “the text resulting from the CMP.” The anticipated use of the 49.3 provision for the Social Security Budget, also up for review on Monday at the Palais-Bourbon, is likely to trigger a censure motion, as promised by La France insoumise, which could be voted on, potentially by Wednesday, with the backing of communists and ecologists.
Awaiting Reactions from RN and PS
Having previously evaded a government collapse during his general policy statement, François Bayrou now faces the challenge of navigating these budget proposals to secure his position at Matignon. The intentions of the RN and the PS remain unclear, with particular attention on the socialists, with whom the government has been in negotiations for several weeks.
Bayrou warned that a censure motion “would be met with anger from the French public.” He added, “Both the RN and the PS understand this as well as I do,” expressing that the French people “desire stability, not a cycle of destruction and dissolution.”
Support for this sentiment comes from former socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, who stated on France 5 that voting for censure at this juncture “would indeed be irresponsible,” addressing not just the PS but all left-wing factions.
Despite modifications to the original draft proposed by Michel Barnier, which Bayrou estimates could incur costs of around 5 billion, the 2025 budget is projected to maintain the deficit at the expected rate of 5.4% of GDP, according to the Prime Minister.
The centrist leader has garnered lukewarm backing from the right, represented in the government but whose support in the Assembly is “decided text by text,” as stated by Laurent Wauquiez, head of the LR deputies. He expressed his firm opposition to any new tax increases and urged the executive to translate their words into action concerning security and immigration.
Amidst calls for a new dissolution deemed inevitable by the RN, Jordan Bardella has suggested a referendum on immigration, capitalizing on the term “submersion” migration that the Prime Minister used during a recent address to around 3,000 attendees in Montélimar (Drôme).
How can governance continue long-term without a clear majority? Following this “agreement” on the budget, Bayrou insists “there’s no justification for halting progress,” highlighting “eight summits” of challenges ahead: “national education, security and justice, overseas matters, production—be it industrial, agricultural, or cultural—climate change, health, and migration issues.” He also noted the pressing topic of pensions, currently under discussion among social partners.
Furthermore, Bayrou clarified his intention to divide the end-of-life bill into two separate texts, addressing “two fundamentally different questions.” He emphasized the societal obligation concerning palliative care, while describing the issue of assisted dying as a legal matter that could provoke significant ethical debates. Nevertheless, he confirmed, “I have no plans to delay the examination of these two texts,” which “will be reviewed concurrently.”