Bayrou Budget Approved by Senate Amid Ongoing Government Pressure – January 23, 2025

After months of delays, the 2025 state budget has passed the Senate, a key win for the Bayrou administration amid socialist discontent. Initially rejected, the budget saw significant support from right-leaning centrists, while left-wing factions opposed it, labeling it austerity-focused. Negotiations are set to continue, with a joint committee aiming for compromise before final votes. The government faces pressure to reduce public deficits while navigating internal coalition tensions and potential censure efforts from the left.

After a lengthy wait of over three months, the proposed state budget for 2025 has successfully passed the Senate, marking a significant milestone for the Bayrou administration. This achievement comes amidst ongoing negotiations with the socialists, who are expressing dissatisfaction with the current fiscal strategy.

Originally introduced by Michel Barnier in October, the budget faced initial rejection by the National Assembly and was put on hold following a censure motion against the former Prime Minister. Ultimately, François Bayrou has taken the reins on this finance bill (PLF), which was approved by a vote of 217 to 105.

The coalition of right-leaning centrists supporting the government voted in favor of the bill, contrasting sharply with the unanimous opposition from the left, particularly the socialist faction, which claimed the budget does not meet their expectations.

“We have cleared a hurdle, but many challenges lie ahead,” remarked Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin. Economy Minister Eric Lombard emphasized the budget’s role in initiating a reduction of excessive deficit levels, calling it a “turning point.”

For the government, the real challenge is just beginning. A joint committee (CMP) meeting is scheduled for January 30, where seven senators and seven deputies will work to reach a compromise. This may be one of the last opportunities to make adjustments that could survive any potential censure.

The budget is critical for the state, which is currently operating under a special law that allows for exceptional measures. It poses a complex dilemma for the executive, which lacks an absolute majority in the National Assembly but is under pressure from Brussels to enhance public finances.

While the government aims to finalize the budget by the end of February, opposition from the left remains fierce. Although the Socialist Party did not back the initial censure motion against Prime Minister François Bayrou, they are intensifying their scrutiny of the budget proposals.

– The Uncertainty of Negotiations –

“The government must understand that nothing is guaranteed. The negotiation is ongoing, but we need positive indications. Currently, the signs are concerning,” stated Thierry Cozic, the leader of socialist senators handling the budget, deriding it as a “budget of austerity.”

The concessions made by Mr. Bayrou, including the renegotiation of pension reforms and the decision not to eliminate 4,000 teaching positions, have not satisfied the socialist party, which met with government representatives in Bercy on Wednesday evening.

The negotiations are fraught with challenges, as the government seeks to achieve a substantial reduction of 32 billion in expenditures and 21 billion in revenue to lower the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP by 2025, compared to an anticipated 6 to 6.1% for 2024.

Moreover, the right-wing majority in the Senate and the pivotal position in the National Assembly mean they will not easily yield, wary of any new tax increases granted to the socialists.

“This is neither the budget of Gabriel Attal, nor that of Michel Barnier, nor that of François Bayrou; it is the Senate’s budget, a responsible budget that signifies the start of a long journey towards restoring our public finances,” asserted Christine Lavarde, leader of the LR group on the finance bill.

– Will New Concessions Be Made? –

The pressing question remains: will this Senate version successfully navigate the National Assembly? If the CMP reaches a consensus, the deputies will vote on the unified text during the week of February 3, possibly utilizing the 49.3 procedure, which could be followed by another censure motion.

“The CMP will be the arbiter of peace. There is potential for change by January 30,” speculated Patrick Kanner, president of the PS senators, in an interview with AFP.

However, the PS faces pressure from within its coalition as well: the Unsubmissive party insists that the rose party risks “definitively breaking” with the New Popular Front if it fails to support a censure motion against the budget.

The left is particularly focused on the additional budget cuts recently introduced by the Bayrou government, which have resulted in significant reductions for sectors such as ecology, housing, development aid, and sports.

“We will vote for the censure and make our discontent known vehemently,” warned Ecologist leader Marine Tondelier, expressing outrage over the perceived “sacrifice of ecology.”

Related Articles