François Bayrou is engaged in vital negotiations with the Socialist Party to secure support for his upcoming general policy statement, focusing on contentious pension reform. Tensions rise as the left demands a suspension of the reform, while the government maintains its position. The Socialists propose financing through the Pension Reserve Fund, but opposition from the right threatens the government’s stability. Upcoming discussions may determine the future of the reform amid internal divisions and pressure from President Macron.
In the hours leading up to his general policy statement, François Bayrou engaged in crucial negotiations on Monday, particularly with the Socialist Party (PS), aiming to circumvent left-wing censure while maintaining the support of his allies in the Republicans (LR), who are increasingly vocal. At the forefront of these discussions is the pivotal pension reform.
A flurry of activity unfolded at Matignon: by late afternoon on Monday, after a meeting with the presidents of the two parliamentary chambers, Gérard Larcher and Yaël Braun-Pivet, François Bayrou welcomed a delegation from the Socialist Party.
With the Prime Minister set to present his general policy statement to the Assembly on Tuesday at 3:00 PM, the government’s focus is firmly on Olivier Faure’s party and the assurances needed to secure a non-censure agreement. Earlier in the day, socialist negotiators met with ministers Catherine Vautrin (Labor and Health), Eric Lombard (Economy), and Amélie de Montchalin (Public Accounts), expressing their dissatisfaction with a budget draft they deemed ‘unacceptable as it stands.’
Importantly, according to sources, the ministers appear to have ruled out any suspension of the pension reform, a demand strongly voiced by the left. The question remains: will François Bayrou reconsider this key aspect of Macron’s second term during his address to the Assembly?
Meanwhile, the Unsubmissive Party, which is not partaking in the negotiations, has already announced plans to file a motion of censure, which is expected to be reviewed on Thursday or Friday. However, without backing from the National Rally (RN) for this motion, the government’s stability is likely to remain intact this week.
A ‘Guarantee’ That Divides Opinions
The socialists insist that any suspension should take effect from the outset of the renegotiation of the reform, which is slated to last six months with social partners, rather than only if the negotiations are successful. Olivier Faure articulated in Libération that ‘the suspension is the guarantee for a discussion that cannot be a mere façade.’
If such a suspension were practically possible, it could allow individuals born in 1963 to retire at 62 years and 6 months (given a contribution period of 42 years and one quarter) instead of the proposed 62 years and 9 months (with a contribution period of 42.5 years).
However, this suspension has sparked division within the presidential camp.
Some members appear open to the idea, viewing it as a necessary concession for political stability. Yaël Braun-Pivet stated that she ‘is not opposed in principle’ to a ‘temporary halt’ of the pension reform to allow for further discussion.
Conversely, others firmly oppose it, highlighting the estimated cost of around 3 billion euros for the year 2025 alone. Macronist deputy Mathieu Lefèvre warned on RMC, ‘To suspend is to repeal; we need to stop playing with semantics. We cannot afford to dismantle the pension reform.’
Edouard Philippe also cautioned that while discussing changes is always beneficial, ‘going backward and wasting time, placing France in a more precarious financial position seems ill-advised.’
‘Leaping into the Abyss’
Alongside him, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau recalled his support for this reform in the name of ‘the greater good of the nation,’ while suggesting that ‘there are aspects that can be renegotiated,’ specifically concerning ‘professional wear and tear’ and ’employment for seniors.’
The PS has proposed financing this suspension through the Pension Reserve Fund, established in the late 1990s, but Labor Minister Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet cautioned on Radio J that ‘it is not a windfall.’
The right has threatened to withdraw from the government if François Bayrou makes excessive concessions to the left.
In an interview with Le Parisien, Laurent Wauquiez, head of the LR deputies, claimed that ‘suspending (the reform) without an alternative plan’ would equate to ‘jumping into the void without a parachute. It will be without the Republican Right!’
Valérie Pécresse, president of the Île-de-France region, added on France Inter, ‘Under these circumstances, the right could no longer participate in this government.’
As discussions continue until Tuesday, the influence of the President of the Republic looms large over Mr. Bayrou, whose legacy is tightly intertwined with the pension reform. Emmanuel Macron met with his Prime Minister at the Élysée on Friday morning, alongside Economy Minister Eric Lombard, Public Accounts Minister Amélie de Montchalin, and Labor and Health Minister Catherine Vautrin.