Ten months before the state elections, there is apparently no change in mood in Bavaria: if it were already election day, the CSU and Free Voters could defend their majority with a combined 51 percent. At least that’s what a representative survey commissioned by SAT 1 Bayern showed these days. But the election campaign hasn’t really started yet. At the start of 2023, the parliamentary groups will meet for their winter retreats this week and next. A tightening of positions is to be expected, but of course also, how could it be otherwise in the election year, a first hint of political trouble. What is the mood? An overview.
41 percent in the new survey – in CSU circles this is interpreted as a “comfortable” start to the election year. The four in front has a symbolic character, as Prime Minister Markus Söder wants to earn more than the modest 37.2 percent of 2018 by CSU standards. Above all, however, one wants to continue governing with the FW – a black-green alliance Söder issued a rejection. Beyond the anti-traffic light election campaign, the CSU is acutely searching for a slogan for the “Bavarian feeling” that is supposed to be fed by the components of tradition and new beginnings; as once anchored in the saying “laptop and lederhosen”. Söder’s favorite at the moment is “high-tech and home”. But maybe there’s something else. On Epiphany at the CSU Bundestag exam, he demonstrated his talent: “White-blue instead of Woke,” said Söder at the start of the meeting. “Woke” mockingly says: an over-sensitivity to injustice and discrimination, which the CSU ascribes to the left-wing camp.
So high-tech and home. Söder has been trying to fill the latter with life for months, apparently leaving no festival unattended in Bavaria. The retreat of the CSU parliamentary group next week in Kloster Banz will contribute to the high-tech. “Bavaria 2030 – The future begins now!” is the motto. It is also about the government’s multi-billion dollar high-tech agenda, which many Christian Socialists believe has not yet received enough public recognition due to the pandemic. Guests include Siegfried Russwurm, President of the Federation of German Industries, Antoine Barre, Managing Director of Apple Germany, and NRW Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst. Söder will give a keynote speech to MPs.
The free voters go relaxed into the election year
The free voters, who are already starting the round of exams this Wednesday in Chieming, Upper Bavaria, are also relaxed about the election year. In surveys, the FW has been fairly constant around ten percent for months, and Söder has just booked them in as a future coalition partner. Externally, the faction gives a cohesive picture, discordant notes against the FW draft horse – Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger – seem to be dead. They were created because of Aiwanger’s hesitation in the corona vaccination and because of the ultimately failed plan to bring the locally grown FW 2021 to the Bundestag. In Chieming it’s about taxes, crafts, energy and volunteering, Clemens Fuest from Munich’s ifo Institute and Bertram Brossardt, General Manager of the Association of Bavarian Business.
The Greens meet in the Swabian town of Bad Wörishofen, motto energy transition – “The energy treasure under our feet”. A visit to the Fuchstal pioneer community is planned, for example, to see wind turbines and energy storage systems. Workshops such as energy renovations or an expert opinion on the financial participation of municipalities in the energy transition – the Greens focus on their core topic. Federal Chairwoman Ricarda Lang will also take part in the discussion. In the most recent survey, the Greens landed at 18 percent, roughly the result of 2018. That was more, the government in Berlin doesn’t seem to be giving wings. What is being debated in political Munich: With Söder’s move to exclude black and green, he has robbed the party of a perspective of power. As a leader of the opposition, you would probably have to show that to the electorate. Basically, all that remains is the traffic light for Bavaria – which is also green. The Greens have so far remained as vague as possible. Faction leader Ludwig Hartmann recently defined the election on October 8 as a “referendum on Bavaria’s energy future”. The only question is: how and with whom?
The SPD has brought a traffic light for Bavaria into play
The SPD has invited federal party leader Lars Klingbeil to its retreat in the state parliament – which should perhaps be taken as an omen. As SPD general secretary, Klingbeil led Olaf Scholz’s campaign. He was initially smiled at with his claim to chancellor and then won the race. That’s roughly how parliamentary group leader and top candidate Florian von Brunn imagines it. Immediately after the federal elections, he brought a traffic light into play for Bavaria, when the SPD was briefly ahead of the Greens in polls. It’s now back in the single digits. Brunn is already the busiest of all campaigners, hardly a week without an advance. In the long period between Christmas and Epiphany alone, he called for a referendum on wind power and an external commission on state housing. Focus of the exam in the state parliament: Skilled workers, housing, education and energy. One of the guests is Peter von Zumbusch, Plant Manager at Wacker Chemie in Burghausen.
The AfD parliamentary group is holding a retreat – and it is expected that all MPs, i.e. both camps, will appear. That in itself is worth reporting, as there have already been exams at the AfD that have been broken off or canceled from the outset. The internal struggle for directions has not been settled, the board is without a majority after resignations. An open escalation in the election year? In parliamentary group circles, one hears more of “Burgfrieden” until October. The exam in the state parliament should be about energy: The AfD is calling for the nuclear power plants to be extended and the reactors that have been switched off to be reactivated, parliamentary group leader Gerd Mannes recently railed against “eco-socialist madness”. In the course of the New Year’s Eve riots in Berlin, members of parliament are hoping for the start of a major migration debate that will be useful in the election campaign.
The FDP will meet in Seeon from Thursday, the latest polls place them below five percent – and thus no longer in the state parliament. A traffic light damage, is the almost unanimous interpretation in party circles. FDP leader Martin Hagen has therefore decreed “pure FDP” as a strategy. He doesn’t want to be forced into a traffic light camp during the election campaign and sees himself as a possible partner of the CSU. A profile with a strong liberal handwriting should bring the “turnaround”, so the hope, as Hagen now formulated in a position paper with the Hesse-FDP; there will also be elections soon. It’s about less bureaucracy and “planned economy”, tax cuts, control of migration or innovation in climate protection. In Seeon, the FDP deals specifically with the economy, technology and inflation, and Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing is also involved.