Status: 09/22/2022 8:14 p.m
At the request of the Union, the Bundestag debated the supply of main battle tanks to Ukraine. But there was no vote. Although the pressure on Chancellor Scholz is growing, he is not moving on the issue.
Union faction deputy Johann Wadephul is a little surprised: the Bundestag had long since decided – in April and with a large majority – that Ukraine should be supplied with heavy weapons. So why the reluctance to go a step further?
“A three-digit number of Marder armored personnel carriers could be delivered immediately without weakening the Bundeswehr,” explained Wadephul in the Bundestag. According to the will of the Union, Ukraine should also be supplied with main battle tanks – the Leopard 2, for example.
Germany only in 18th place
The Social Democrat Gabriela Heinrich defends the Chancellor’s line with a long list – namely those weapon systems that Germany has already supplied. Calling this “alms” has nothing to do with reality: Ukraine itself confirms how much German weapons made the most recent successes possible.
“Germany delivers,” was the conclusion of the social democrat. What the CSU defense politician Florian Hahn tries to counter by saying that measured in terms of economic output, Germany is only in 18th place when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
Massive wear and tear of Soviet tanks
But why is Ukraine pushing the Germans harder than ever for deliveries of the Marder infantry fighting vehicle or the Leopard 2 main battle tank? Firstly, the heroic recapture of territories hailed around the world is definitely costly for Ukraine, as it wears out the existing Soviet-made main battle tanks.
So the moment will come when a call for help will go out from Kyiv that soon there will be no more armored vehicles. By then, at the latest, the West will hardly be able to resist the Ukrainian entreaties, military experts predict.
The goal is recapture
Second, an offensive like the one Ukraine is trying to launch in the east and south of its country is different from defensive fighting: it means that forces have to come out of cover and push forward if they want to conquer new territory. This is only possible when moving in armored vehicles.
This will be all the more successful the more agile the tanks are and the more precisely they can hit. This explains the great interest in the German Leopard 2. Although they have been in series production since the late 1970s, they are no longer considered the youngest, but they are still clearly superior to Soviet-designed main battle tanks.
Time window is getting smaller
And finally, there is time as a pressure factor: the time window for significant gains in terrain could close again in just a few weeks – namely with the onset of winter. In addition, holding the so-called referendums on annexation to Russia in some occupied territories, the outcome of which seems predictable, could become a psychological factor. Will Russia then try to spread the story, contrary to international law, that Ukraine is attacking Russian territory in Donbass or Luhansk? From the Ukrainian point of view, time is of the essence.
Baerbock rowed back
You can see this in the FDP and the Greens in a similar way. These parties are definitely pushing for main battle tank deliveries, even if not everyone says so openly and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently rowed back.
In order to avoid a vote on the union motion, which could have gotten the supporters of the Greens and Liberals in trouble, it was referred to the responsible committees. The most elegant way of not having to vote with the opposition. The AfD and the left make no secret of their rejection of any arms deliveries.
No sign of a change of heart
Despite the recent significant increase in pressure – also from his own coalition – there are few signs of a change of heart on the part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz: Scholz is sticking to his previous position: it is important to act “prudently” and “not go it alone”. This means that as long as none of the alliance partners is delivering Western-style battle tanks or armored personnel carriers to the Ukraine, neither will Germany.
However, internal and external pressure – from within the country’s own coalition as well as from Ukraine itself – is likely to continue to grow. After all, the announcement of partial mobilization by Russian President Vladimir Putin was an unmistakable signal that this war could go on for a long time.