Was there something? At least in the statement by the chemical company BASF on Friday, the words Ukraine, Russia and war do not appear. Not even in the forecast for the 2022 financial year, in which the group started “very strongly”. For 2022, he expects sales of between 74 and 77 billion euros and an operating result before special items of between 6.6 and 7.2 billion euros. Uncertainties from the ongoing interruptions in the supply chain, the further course of the corona pandemic and the development of energy prices are taken into account.
In a video link, CEO Martin Brudermüller then commented on the war: “Yesterday marked the end of peace in Europe.” One sees the further development with “great concern”. But it was “presumptuous” to estimate any effects. The markets are not so big that they can have a “major impact on us”. Russia’s share of group sales is one percent, Ukraine’s 0.2 percent. However, energy prices will probably remain “rather higher” in the medium term, which could curb consumption and economic growth, said Brudermüller.
Energy prices were already weighing on business in 2021. CFO Hans-Ulrich Engel put the additional costs of rising natural gas prices at around 1.5 billion euros, of which 0.8 billion euros were attributable to the fourth quarter alone. What the US sanctions and the suspension of the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany mean will become apparent in the coming weeks and months. It is too early to judge whether this means the final end for the pipeline, said Engel.
The Wintershall Dea holding, which is currently not affected by the sanctions anywhere in operational terms, is involved in financing the pipeline. BASF holds 72.7 percent of the oil and gas group with a book value of 9.5 billion euros. The remaining shares are held by Letter One, an investment vehicle owned by Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman. The IPO has been postponed several times, for example in June 2021 to “after 2021”. The shareholders are now probably at odds about the appropriate date, Letter One is not pushing it. “Strategically, BASF is sticking to the IPO of Wintershall Dea,” explained Engel. He does not rule out legal recourse. In 2023, BASF has the right to unilaterally pursue an IPO.
BASF had raised its forecast for 2021 three times, most recently in October to 76 to 78 billion euros in sales and 7.5 to 8 billion euros in operating profit (EBIT) excluding special items. In the end, sales were 78.6 billion euros, around a third more than in 2020, and earnings were 7.8 billion euros, almost 120 percent more than in the previous year. The dividend is to increase by ten cents to EUR 3.40 per share.