Michel Barnier’s government faces a critical situation as he invokes the controversial article 49.3 of the Constitution regarding the Social Security budget, potentially leading to a censure motion from the left and National Rally. If passed, this would mark the shortest administration in the Fifth Republic’s history. With Barnier making concessions to the far-right and the Assembly’s looming vote on a significant deficit, the political landscape in France remains unstable, risking further turmoil and financial crises.
The Uncertain Future of Michel Barnier’s Government
The precarious government led by Michel Barnier is facing a critical juncture, with its existence hanging by a thread. On Monday, the Prime Minister was compelled to invoke his responsibilities regarding the Social Security budget, triggering the first use of the 49.3 article of the Constitution. This move is closely associated with a potential motion of censure, which, if passed, could lead to the government’s downfall, especially since both the left and the National Rally (RN) have pledged to unite their votes against it.
A Historic Moment in French Politics
If the National Assembly were to adopt this motion, it would mark a historic first since the ousting of Georges Pompidou’s government back in 1962, making the Barnier administration the shortest in the annals of the Fifth Republic.
“We have now reached a moment of truth that puts everyone in front of their responsibilities,” Barnier declared during an address to the National Assembly, cautioning against the prospect of the nation entering “unknown territory.”
At 73 years old, Barnier, appointed by Emmanuel Macron on September 5, took the stage to invoke the controversial article 49.3, which allows legislation to pass without a vote, yet simultaneously exposes the government to a motion of censure.
This swift political maneuver did not take long to provoke a response, as the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front populaire initiated the censure motion.
“He will face both dishonor and censure,” remarked the leader of the La France insoumise deputies, highlighting the government’s recent concessions to the RN.
The contentious text is slated for debate as early as Wednesday, with Insoumis Eric Coquerel, president of the Finance Committee, set to defend it. The RN has indicated its support for the motion and is also preparing its own censure proposal alongside its ciottist allies.
To successfully topple the government, 288 deputies must vote in favor of the censure, a number that seems achievable through a temporary alliance between the left and the RN.
“Mr. Barnier did not respond to the demands of the 11 million National Rally voters,” Marine Le Pen stated. “He said everyone should assume their responsibilities, so we will assume ours.”
With no majority in the Assembly, the Barnier government has made several concessions to the far-right party this past week, addressing issues such as electricity taxes and State Medical Aid, though Le Pen insists these measures are still inadequate.
Earlier that day, Barnier had a conversation with the deputy from Pas-de-Calais and subsequently announced a commitment to ensure “no delisting of medications” in 2025, despite previous plans for a 5% reduction.
However, for Le Pen, this gesture still fell short. Arriving at the Assembly just ahead of a crucial session, she reiterated her demand for Barnier to abandon the partial de-indexation of pensions to avoid censure.
“I have gone to the end of the dialogue with all political groups,” Barnier stated, closing the door to further concessions in his speech.
The Assembly is set to vote on the outcome of last week’s mixed joint commission between deputies and senators, which now forecasts a deficit of €18.3 billion for 2025, exceeding the initial target of €16 billion.
Should the Barnier government collapse, France risks plunging deeper into the political turmoil ignited by Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly in June, coupled with the looming threat of a financial crisis affecting the nation’s borrowing capabilities.
“Without the Social Security financing bill we are examining today, the deficit of social accounts could soar to nearly €30 billion next year,” Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin warned during the session.
The widening gap between France’s borrowing interest rates and Germany’s, known as the ‘spread,’ has significantly increased following Barnier’s announcement, indicating investor apprehension.
While no official comments have come from the Élysée regarding the evolving political landscape, Emmanuel Macron is currently on a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia. However, the President will soon need to take decisive action, as a successful censure motion would necessitate the appointment of a new Prime Minister.
In a statement, socialist representatives clarified, “This motion of censure is not an end in itself; it is not meant to destabilize.” They urged the head of state to consider appointing a left-wing Prime Minister.
With the situation growing increasingly dire, the nine leaders of the parliamentary groups forming the “governmental base” in the Assembly and the Senate, including Gabriel Attal and Laurent Wauquiez, issued a final warning. “Voting for a motion of censure would plunge the country into the unknown,” they cautioned in a joint statement, advocating instead for “stability and calm.”