A week before the anniversary date of the start of the Russian invasion, kyiv fears more and more that Moscow wants to mark the occasion by launching a new large-scale offensive. Volodymyr Zelensky is urging his Western allies to speed up the delivery of weapons and to decide on sending fighter planes, while the promised tanks should arrive at the end of March. On the front, the fighting is still focused on Bakhmout, where “the meat grinder is on”, according to the leader of the Wagner group. The war also has important economic consequences, between a gas price which exploded this summer and a disruption of trade routes with Russia.
Like every Friday, 20 minutes takes stock in four infographics of this new week of war and deciphers the issues.
The Russian army stumbles on Bakhmout
In eastern Ukraine, although kyiv has succeeded in retaking the territories north of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, once threatened, Bakhmout is still on the front line. Russia has been trying for several months to take the city, which has become a symbol of the bitterness of the fighting if it does not represent a real strategic challenge. “Bahmut will not be taken tomorrow, because there is strong resistance, shelling, the meat grinder is in action,” said Yevgeny Prigojine, the boss of the Wagner Group.
He estimates that the city, once populated by 70,000 inhabitants, can resist until spring. “I think we would have taken Bakhmout if it weren’t for this monstrous military bureaucracy, and if we weren’t being put in the way every day,” he castigates, regretting in particular that the group Wagner can no longer recruit fighters from Russian prisons. On the battlefield, Ukrainian officers claim to “hold on” and ensure that morale remains high.
kyiv relies on Western arms supplies
To resist, Volodymyr Zelensky called on his Western allies to “accelerate” arms deliveries. The subject has come up regularly since the beginning of the war. After having obtained defense equipment and then anti-tank missiles during the first months, the Ukrainian president obtained drones, artillery, anti-aircraft defense systems and more recently the promise that heavy tanks would be delivered to him.
With the green light from Berlin, European countries will thus provide Leopard 2s, after having grouped the donations in Poland and trained the Ukrainian soldiers. Germany specified that the first tanks could be used from the end of March. But during his visit to London, Paris and Brussels in early February, Volodymyr Zelensky also asked for fighter planes.
The price of gas falls below its pre-war level
At the heart of European sanctions against Russia, the price of natural gas soared in the first days of the war and then throughout the summer. Since the beginning of 2023, when the Russian gas embargo is firmly in place in Europe, the market has calmed down. The price of a megawatt hour has even fallen below 50 euros, a level not seen since September 2021.
By turning to other suppliers such as the United States, and by launching major construction projects for LNG terminals, particularly in Germany, Europe has adapted. Enough to infuriate Vladimir Putin, who seeks to defend Gazprom, the national energy flagship. “Despite unfair competition, to put it frankly, and direct attempts from outside to hinder and slow down its development, Gazprom is moving forward and launching new projects”, launched the Russian president on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the gas giant this Friday.
International trade disrupted
It’s not just Russian natural gas that has been hit by international sanctions. Fertilizers and electronic products are notably subject to embargoes. Many Western companies have withdrawn from Russia, and those that remain there are sometimes in turmoil, such as Auchan, accused by Kiev of being “a full-fledged weapon of Russian aggression” after the publication of an investigation by the World.
Trade between Russia and many Western countries has thus dried up since the start of the war, such as Germany, the Netherlands and the United States. But Moscow, in search of allies and economic opportunities, is redeploying its trade routes, in particular towards Asia. India has thus started importing products massively from Russia, while South Korea is entering the Russian market. Turkey, which is trying to position itself as the main intermediary in the discussions between Moscow and kyiv, has also intensified its exchanges in both directions over the past year.