analysis
Tel Aviv, Ramallah, Beirut: The German Foreign Minister’s eighth trip to the Middle East ends with great concerns about a two-front war. Baerbock’s criticism of the Israeli government became clearer and harsher.
It is not easy for the German Foreign Minister to blame a country like Israel. Especially not after the Hamas attacks last October. It is a balancing act, as always when it comes to the relationship between Germany and Israel. Baerbock repeats the German government’s position that Israel has a right to defend itself. But she also says clearly that there is anger in the face of the images of suffering in Gaza. And that this anger will not help Israel, but will only help Hamas and the situation will escalate further.
“We do not want Israel to lose itself in this war”
“We don’t want Israel to lose itself in this war,” she says at a security conference in Tel Aviv. There stands a German foreign minister, denouncing the “disturbing reports” from the Gaza Strip and talking about the mistreatment of Palestinian prisoners. It is very quiet in the hall of the Israeli University of Herzliya, but several listeners are nodding.
Baerbock warns Israel against isolating itself
Something is shifting in the relationship between Germany and Israel. The criticism from the German Foreign Minister is becoming clearer, harsher, more concrete. Baerbock is warning the Israeli government against isolating itself internationally. In the long term, security for Israel will only be possible together with security for the Palestinians. And together with partners in the region. Many words for one term: the two-state solution.
Onward journey to Ramallah
In this respect, it is almost logical that the minister travels to Ramallah in the West Bank the next morning. The current prime minister has only been in office there since April. Mohammad Mustafa is considered a technocrat. But this type of politician may be more helpful than others in the heated situation.
In Ramallah, Baerbock met the new Prime Minister Mustafa.
The situation in the Palestinian territories is difficult even outside the Gaza Strip. “We are facing a collapse, an abyss,” say government representatives in Ramallah. Israel has stopped paying customs and tax revenues to Palestine for months. In fact, Israel only collects this money and passes it on to the Palestinian Authority.
But now these payments have stopped. The government in Ramallah is currently having to make do with just a quarter of its other income. 180,000 people are earning only 50 percent of their usual salary, including teachers, doctors and people in administration. Those in charge in Ramallah are talking about an economic blockade by Israel.
And Prime Minister Mustafa’s appeal for Germany to recognize Palestine as a state also falls on deaf ears.
By detour to Beirut
And then Beirut, the last stop on the trip. Because Israel and Lebanon are formally at war, there are no flights between Tel Aviv and Beirut. In order to get there anyway, the German government plane flies from Israel to Cyprus, fakes a landing there – only to take off again a few meters above the runway and head for Beirut. The Middle East conflict is producing bizarre results, even in air traffic.
Baerbock brings with her a pledge of support: 18 million euros for humanitarian aid, as around 1.5 million Syrian refugees live in Lebanon.
Fear of a second front in Lebanon
But it quickly becomes clear in Lebanon that the next war is looming. Hezbollah is fighting on the border with Israel, on the so-called Blue Line. And this militia is much better equipped than Hamas. No matter who you talk to, you hear little hope that this second front will be pacified in the near future. In fact, the opposite is more likely to happen. That would mean a war for Israel on two fronts, in the Gaza Strip and in the north of the country, where tens of thousands of Israelis have already fled from Hezbollah’s rockets.
This perspective seems to be the sad, frustrating conclusion after Baerbock’s trip. A region is preparing for the next escalation. An even worse war on two fronts seems quite conceivable for Israel.
If you visit a friend in a difficult situation every month and they no longer want to hear your advice, the tone becomes harsher, but also more honest. That seems to be the case between Germany and Israel now.