AUSTRALIAN OPEN – Paul, Khachanov, Tsitsipas: who could really bother Djokovic, and how?

Being a little sarcastic, one wonders if the most likely scenario today to prevent Novak Djokovic from racing towards his 22nd Grand Slam title and thus joining Rafael Nadal in the legend, beyond a sudden worsening of his contracture in the thigh, it would not be a dazzling return of a Covid epidemic which would call for a general reconfinement, and therefore the cancellation of the last days of the tournament.

We exaggerate, of course. Above all, we would not want to offend the famous as well as glorious uncertainty of sport. But it is true that the way in which the Serb has literally dismantled his two previous opponents, Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev, who are not the least sharpened knives in the drawer, hardly encourages optimism about the chances of the last three survivors, Tommy Paul and Stefanos Tsitsipas or Karen Khachanov.

More or less quickly rid of most of his most dangerous rivals, or at least supposed to be so, for this Australian Open (Alcaraz, Nadal, Ruud, Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime, Rune, Kyrgios…), Djokovic seems to have a priori to have the free way to a 10th coronation in Australia especially since, it should be remembered, he has never lost the slightest semi-final (nor final), in nine previous ones. Moreover, he has not lost at all since a round of 16 against Hyeon Chung Hyeon in 2018, now 26 wins in a row, Andre Agassi’s record equaled.

A huge task therefore awaits the last three survivors who accompany him in this last four starting with Tommy Paul, who will be the first to stick to it this Friday. Huge, but not impossible nonetheless. Because it never quite is. Because we have seen others in tennis, especially in Melbourne. And because Tommy Paul, Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also customers…

Tommy Paul

Their history

It sucks: the two men have never faced each other.

Why he has (a priori) no chance

Because if he is not, at 25, the youngest of the semi-finalists (Tsitsipas is a year younger), he is on the other hand by far the most inexperienced, the only one in any case who will play for the first times at this level.

And because not only has Novak Djokovic, as we have said, never lost a semi-final in Australia, but he has also rarely faced players as “poorly ranked” (35th) as Paul, at the exception of Aslan Karastev (114th) in 2021. Which had only taken him nine games.

Which could still plead for him

Beyond the fact that he plays the tennis of his life, Tommy Paul rarely misses out on the best. The proof, last year, he beat three of the five top 5 players he faced: Alexander Zverev in Indian Wells, Carlos Alcaraz in Montreal and Rafael Nadal at the Rolex Paris Masters, where he was in the quarterfinals.

He is an American and as a good American, he will always leave with the conviction that he can do it, which is a mandatory prerequisite (and not necessarily the case for everyone) against Djokovic. Tommy will also be able to rely on the memory of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the last unseeded player to reach the Australian Open final 15 years ago. The Frenchman was then 38th in the world and had no complex against Rafael Nadal, big favorite but rolled in three sets in the semis.

The challenge for him

If he upsets, Paul will become the first American to make the Australian Open final since Andre Agassi 20 years ago in 2003. And the first American in a Grand Slam final since Andy Roddick in Wimbledon in 2009. He would also reach the top 15 (top 20 at least if he loses in the semis).

The opinion of our consultant Arnaud Clément

“He is able to serve extremely well, much better than De Minaur and Rublev who could not rely on this weapon against Djokovic. And this in the first ball as in the second ball. Thanks to that, he will perhaps be a little less aggressive than Novak’s two previous victims.

From the baseline, he is a player who has interesting shots, who can play loose and “send” well. Afterwards, there is a parameter which in my opinion plays against him, it is the fact of never having faced Djokovic. And as long as we haven’t been in front, we can’t really realize how high we have to set the bar. He may realize as the game goes on the adjustments he has to make, but the risk is that it will be too late each time.”

His chances of doing so: 5%.

Karen Khachanov

Their history

They have faced each other nine times (including twice in the Grand Slam, at Wimbledon 2018 and Roland-Garros 2020), for eight victories for Djokovic, the last in the round of 16 of the last Rolex Paris Masters.

Why he would (a priori) have no chance

Which could still plead for him

We just said it. The Russian has already beaten Djokovic and not on any occasion since it was in the final of the Rolex Paris Masters (2018), another stronghold of the Serb. The feat is not small. Apart from the Big Four, only two players have managed to beat Djokovic in the final of a Masters 1000, the other being Holger Rune, also in Paris, last November.

Besides, he wasn’t just any Novak Djokovic either. The Serb was then launched into a second half of the stratospheric season, winning in particular at Wimbledon and the US Open, again becoming world number 1 the day after the Paris tournament.

The challenge for him

Before thinking about Djokovic, he is already reaching his first Grand Slam final, which would make this Australian Open the 4th consecutive Grand Slam marked by the first accession of a player to the final of a major tournament ( after Casper Ruud at Roland-Garros, Nick Kyrgios at Wimbledon and Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open).

And if luckily he goes to the end, Kachanov, currently 20th in the world, will also return to the top 10 and even beat his best ranking to settle in 7th place in the world (he was 8th in 2019).

Arnaud Clement’s opinion

“Beating Djokovic in the final at the Rolex Paris Masters can actually help him. I remember that game well, with an incredible level of play for six or seven games before Djokovic dropped his foot a bit like that sometimes happens to him at the end of the season.

Khachanov will be able to rely on what happened that day, when he managed to keep Djokovic on a regular basis, albeit in other conditions. All the same, he had been impressive in this match. He has a big physique, he is a real competitor. It will not surprise Djokovic who will know exactly what to expect tactically. But on the intrinsic level of play, he has taken a step forward and he is confident. Afterwards, it will be a question of being opportunistic on the occasions, it will be absolutely capital.

His chances of doing so: 10%.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Their history

They are already “old” rivals since they have faced each other 12 times (including twice in the Grand Slam, at Roland-Garros), for 10 victories for Djokovic, the last at the Turin Masters last November.

Why he would (a priori) have no chance

Because he too is struggling to make it to a Grand Slam, as Novak Djokovic did not fail to “remind” him (in spite of himself?) by declaring the other day that he had not still played in a major final. It was to forget, of course, Roland-Garros 2021 and this final lost against… Djokovic.

Voluntary or not, the slip of the Serb has come to put the finger on the main concern of Tsitsipas in recent years: very often placed, rarely winning. And even less against Djokovic.

Which could still plead for him

It may be a different story on hard and in Melbourne, where Novak is at home. But Tsitsipas is too, not only because of the large Greek colony still present there. The Australian Open is the most prolific Grand Slam for the world No.4 since he has reached the last four four times in six appearances. Certainly without passing this course yet.

With his ultra-varied tennis and his (now) high quality of service, especially on break points (43/49 saved since the start of the fortnight!), all punctuated by his touch of madness, he seems to have the profile tennis player most likely to stop the Serbian machine. Especially since he will arrive fresh and available since, of the four semi-finalists, he is the one who spent the least time on the court (11:51 a.m.) despite his match in five sets against Jannik Sinner.

The challenge for him

It is enormous since beyond a possible first Grand Slam coronation which would silence a hell of a lot of detractors that we know him, Tsitsipas would do a double blow by also reaching for the first time the place of world number 1.

“He’s the one with the best chance of beating Djokovic, relative to his level of play before even talking about his style of play. He’s been able to get out of big matches more regularly than the other two. He’s inherently the strongest of the three, which does not mean that he will beat Khachanov, who in my opinion will be very difficult for him to play.

Tsitsipas serves extremely well here and is the one with the most complete game. He regularly comes to conclude at the net which in my opinion is important against Djokovic. He also has a superior forehand quality to the other two, but the diagonal forehand is likely to be important, especially since he is also capable of hitting very hard along the line to move Djokovic. In summary, he is the one who can do the most things and who can thus surprise Djokovic more, provided he is on a huge day.”

His chances of doing so: 20%.