Bashar al-Assad’s presidency has faced significant challenges during Syria’s civil war, relying heavily on Russian and Iranian military support. Despite regaining territory, rebel forces continue to threaten his regime, exemplified by the destruction of his family’s statues in rebel-held areas. Assad presents himself as a protector against extremism, yet his rule has deepened sectarian divides. Although he has made some diplomatic strides, he remains largely isolated internationally, and the humanitarian crisis persists with millions displaced.
The Ongoing Struggle of Bashar al-Assad
For years, President Bashar al-Assad has relied on the military support of Russia and Iran to fend off rebel forces amid Syria’s protracted civil war. However, despite his efforts, he has not fully vanquished them, leaving him exposed to threats when his allies are preoccupied with other conflicts.
The swift advancement of rebel forces in western Syria poses a significant challenge to Assad’s regime, marking a critical juncture in the Assad family’s decades-long rule over Damascus and potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
In towns controlled by rebels, statues of Assad’s father and brother have been toppled, and their images are being systematically destroyed—torn down, burned, or shot at—reflecting the deep-seated animosity towards his rule.
On Saturday, the Syrian presidency released a statement refuting claims that Assad had fled the country, asserting his commitment to fulfilling his presidential duties from Damascus.
Assad ascended to the presidency in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez, thus continuing the dominance of the Alawite sect in a predominantly Sunni Muslim nation, while also maintaining Syria’s alignment with Iran against Israel and the United States.
His presidency has been framed by the upheavals of the Iraq war and the Lebanese crisis, but it has been the civil war ignited by the Arab Spring in 2011 that has truly defined his legacy, as demonstrators advocating for democracy faced brutal crackdowns.
Labelled an ‘animal’ by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 due to allegations of using chemical weapons—claims he has consistently denied—Assad has survived the predictions of many foreign leaders who believed his fall was imminent during the early days of conflict.
With Russian air support and Iranian militias backing him, Assad has regained much of the territory lost during years of intense fighting, including areas subjected to sieges that have been condemned for their brutality by UN investigators.
Although the conflict has simmered down in some regions, large portions of the country remain outside his control, and the economy continues to suffer under sanctions.
Assad has re-established connections with Arab nations that once distanced themselves from him, yet he remains largely isolated in the international community.
While he has not publicly addressed the insurgents’ recent capture of Aleppo, he informed the Iranian President that the escalation in violence was an attempt to reshape the region in favor of Western interests, reiterating his belief that the uprising is a foreign-backed endeavor.
Assad’s Complex Narrative
In justifying his actions during the initial stages of the insurrection, Assad likened himself to a surgeon, questioning whether he should be condemned for his methods or praised for his efforts to save the nation. His confidence was palpable as the conflict began, asserting to soldiers, “We will strike them with an iron fist, and Syria will become what it was again” following the retaking of Maaloula in 2014.
While he succeeded in some measures, the reality is stark: vast regions of Syria remain beyond state control, cities lie in ruins, the death toll exceeds 350,000, and millions have fled the country.
THE IMPACT OF SECTARIANISM
Assad has garnered support from Syrians who view him as a bulwark against extremist Sunni factions. As groups inspired by Al-Qaeda rose to prominence, this fear resonated with minority communities, although the rebels have attempted to reassure them of their safety.
Despite his claims of fostering secular Arab nationalism, critics argue that his regime has exacerbated sectarian divisions, particularly with the influx of Iran-backed Shiite fighters and the support of Sunni nations like Turkey and Qatar for the rebels.
The Iranian government’s commitment to Assad was made clear when a senior official declared in 2015 that Assad’s fate was a “red line” for Tehran. Meanwhile, the U.S. struggled to uphold its own “red line” established by President Barack Obama in 2012 against the use of chemical weapons, as investigations revealed Damascus’s involvement in such attacks.
In 2013, a sarin gas attack in Ghouta resulted in numerous fatalities, yet Moscow brokered an agreement for the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons, averting a U.S. response. Nevertheless, toxic gas attacks persisted, prompting a retaliatory missile strike from President Trump in 2017.
Assad has consistently denied any wrongdoing regarding these attacks and has dismissed evidence of barrel bombs causing widespread destruction, even trivializing the claims in a BBC interview in 2015.
As fighting subsided, he accused his adversaries of waging a war on Syria’s economy. While Assad remains a pariah in the eyes of the West, some Arab nations that once opposed him have begun to reintegrate him into diplomatic circles, evidenced by a warm reception from UAE leaders during his visit in 2022.
A TRANSFORMATION FROM OPHTHALMOLOGIST TO LEADER
Assad has often portrayed himself as a relatable leader, seen in films driving a modest vehicle and visiting veterans with his wife. He became president in 2000, but his path to leadership was not always clear. His father, Hafez, had groomed another son, Bassel, for succession, but after Bassel’s untimely death in 1994, Bashar transitioned from his career as an ophthalmologist in London to assume the role of the presumptive heir.
Upon taking office, Assad initially appeared to embrace liberal reforms, heralded as the ‘Damascus Spring,’ releasing political prisoners and opening the economy to private enterprises. His marriage to Asma Akhras, a British-born investment banker, added to the narrative of hope for a more progressive Syria.