The Southeast Asian ASEAN alliance is primarily geared towards coordination on economic issues. But the summit in Laos that begins today is also about the civil war in Myanmar.
The heads of state and government of the Southeast Asian countries arrive at the well-secured meeting location in Laos’ capital Vientiane. But the pictures give a deceptive impression of the role of the host in the association of states. Laos is a weak ASEAN chair, say political scientists like Collin Koh from the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“Laos is trying to simply survive its presidency. The country will probably be more than happy to hand over the hot potato to Malaysia soon. Then Laos can sit back and relax a bit for the next ten years.”
The ASEAN states are currently dealing with many politically sensitive issues that Laos does not want to get its fingers burned over: rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea, escalating problems in Myanmar and the growing rivalry in the Indo-Pacific between the United States and China.
“I don’t expect the ASEAN summit to condemn China for its behavior in the South China Sea. That won’t happen. China is never openly condemned at ASEAN summits,” Koh noted.
Close connection to Beijing
Laos is one of the poorest ASEAN countries and is heavily indebted to China. This is another reason why criticism is unlikely under the Laos presidency. China has invested heavily in roads, dams and train routes in Laos.
Greater economic cooperation between ASEAN countries is the most important issue for Laos, for example in digitalization, artificial intelligence and common payment systems.
The ASEAN region is one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world. German and European companies are therefore increasingly investing in ASEAN countries in order to benefit from the economic dynamism, especially in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.
The ASEAN association is the EU’s third largest trading partner outside of Europe – after China and the USA.
Myanmar’s crisis on the agenda
Economic development is more important to most Southeast Asian countries than security issues, says Koh. One conflict will still be high on the agenda in the next few days: the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.
Since the military seized power in February 2021, Myanmar has descended into chaos and violence. Attempts at mediation by the ASEAN states have so far been unsuccessful. Malaysia’s foreign minister still said ASEAN wanted to stick to its three-year-old five-point peace plan.
A controversial guest
Thailand in particular, which is also affected as a neighboring country, is pushing the ASEAN states to make a new move. Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra emphasized the important role the association plays in resolving the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. She announced further diplomatic efforts in December, along with Malaysia’s new ASEAN chairmanship.
Myanmar’s military government is sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the ASEAN summit for the first time in three years. The military leadership has not been allowed to attend since the coup and has only been allowed to send a non-political representative because the military is not following the five-point peace plan drawn up by ASEAN.
The aim of the plan is a ceasefire, dialogue between the conflicting parties and humanitarian aid for the population. This year’s participation of a representative of the military government has been criticized by human rights groups and non-governmental organizations. They say this step legitimizes the military regime.
The heads of state and government will meet in Laos’ capital until Friday. The goal is to have common declarations of intent, which, however, do not necessarily have to be followed by action, says Koh. The foreign ministers of America and Russia, Anthony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov, are expected as guests at the end of the week. As well as China’s Premier Li Keqiang.