Are Bavaria’s Incidence Numbers Wrong? The LGL has its own counting method – Bavaria

The State Office for Public Health counts those infected with the coronavirus, of whom no vaccination status is known, as unvaccinated. This is also the reason for the high incidences in this group. FDP leader Hagen speaks of a scandal.

For Martin Hagen the matter is a “scandal”. He felt “duped” by Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU), tweeted the head of the FDP parliamentary group on Saturday. What makes him so angry? It’s about corona statistics, which Söder tweeted on November 18. According to this, the seven-day incidence in the unvaccinated (1469) in Bavaria was more than 13 times as high as in the vaccinated (110). “Dramatic,” wrote Söder. The problem: The numbers are not correct. Hagen speaks of “manipulation”, calls for “unreserved clarification” and asks “who knew about it”.

In fact, the State Office for Health and Food Safety (LGL) records the infections in Bavaria – but does not always know the vaccination status of the infected. This could be due to the fact that the health authorities are currently so stressed that they no longer manage to query every vaccination status. But instead of recording this separately, the LGL includes all people whose vaccination status is unknown as unvaccinated – which drives the incidence of this group up. The world reported on the weekend and prompted Martin Hagen to tweet anger.

The method of counting has been known for a long time, the LGL itself provides information on its homepage: “Unvaccinated Covid-19 cases are people who had not received a vaccination at the time of infection or for whom no information is available.” Nevertheless, the question arises: Why does the Free State not simply identify the unknown cases as unknown? Other federal states are doing this, for example Schleswig-Holstein, which is much less affected by the pandemic. The statistics of the two countries differ accordingly. At the time of the controversial Söder tweet, the incidence of unvaccinated people in Schleswig-Holstein was 48 and that of vaccinated people was 13 – a good three and a half times higher.

“The unadulterated figures also show that vaccination significantly reduces the risk of infection,” says FDP parliamentary group leader Hagen. The Bavarian counting method undermines the trust of the citizens. “Only through honesty and transparency can we, lateral thinkers and other conspiracy theorists, take the wind out of the sails.” If Söder has used the LGL counting method as the basis for all his calculations, this number could also be wrong: 0.5 percent. That is how low he recently put the rate of vaccination breakthroughs.

The LGL tries to justify it on Sunday. “We decided to initially count the cases without information on the vaccination status among the unvaccinated. Because it turned out that these – according to data available later – were unvaccinated in the vast majority of cases. Merely omitting the missing values ​​would have been led to completely wrong incidence ratios, “said LGL boss Walter Jonas. A different way of counting would not “change the fact that the incidence in the unvaccinated is many times higher than in the vaccinated”. FDP man Hagen, on the other hand, thinks that “those who have been vaccinated suggest a false sense of security and may lead them to risky behavior.” He demands: “Those responsible must draw conclusions.”

And Markus Söder? Push away any responsibility. When asked, a spokesman for the State Chancellery announced on Sunday: “How these figures come about is solely the responsibility of the LGL” and the Ministry of Health.

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