ARD-GermanyTrend: Approval for “Leopard” delivery | tagesschau.de

Status: 02/02/2023 6:00 p.m

The delivery of battle tanks to Ukraine is currently dominating the political debate in Germany. According to ARD Germany trend the decision was overwhelmingly popular with the public. However, for a good third, military support now goes too far.

February 24 marks the anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Shortly after the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj demanded heavy weapons, including battle tanks, from the western states. But the allies struggled for a long time until the decision was made last week: Germany will deliver 14 Leopard 2 A6 main battle tanks to Ukraine. In addition, the federal government gives other states permission to supply their own “Leopard” tanks. This decision is more popular than rejected by the population: 39 percent see it as a mistake, while 52 percent do not.

The decision received the highest approval from supporters of the Greens: 86 percent stated that the battle tank decision was not a mistake. It is 70 percent among SPD supporters and 65 percent among CDU/CSU supporters. The opinion of the FDP supporters, however, is divided: 43 percent consider the battle tank decision to be correct, 53 percent a mistake. The decision is particularly controversial among party supporters of the AfD: only 14 percent think it is correct.

For a third, the arms deliveries go too far

However, the fact that the federal government now wants to deliver 14 “Leopard” main battle tanks to Ukraine has apparently increased the camp of those who are critical of the arms deliveries by Germany: a good three out of ten (35 percent) currently state that the support Ukraine goes too far with arms. Compared to January (before the decision), this value has increased by 9 percentage points. Four out of ten (44 percent, up 3) think supporting Ukraine with arms is appropriate. On the other hand, the camp of those who feel support for Ukraine with arms has not gone far enough has fallen by 10 percentage points. Currently, 15 percent state this, in January it was 25 percent.

Desire for efforts to find a diplomatic solution

The question of how to end the war against Ukraine beyond the battlefield has also been discussed for months. The proportion of those who feel that the diplomatic efforts to end the war do not go far enough have increased slightly: 58 percent (up 6 percent compared to January) say so. On the other hand, three in ten (30 percent, down 4) say that diplomatic efforts are appropriate. Only four percent say that the diplomatic efforts go too far.

37 percent currently consider the sanctions against Russia to be appropriate (plus 2), 38 percent do not go far enough (plus 3), and 18 percent currently go too far (minus 1).

Majority sees Ukraine in the long term in the EU

At the summit meeting between the European Union and Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy intends to press ahead with his country’s accession to the EU. Selenskyj submitted an application to join the EU in February 2022, just a few days after the start of the war. On June 23, 2022, Ukraine was officially granted candidate status for EU accession. 58 percent currently believe that Ukraine should be admitted to the EU in the long term (minus 5 compared to March 2022), 31 percent tend to disagree (plus 5 compared to March 2022).

Ukraine is also seeking Western support in NATO. In October last year, Zelenskyj had applied for accelerated NATO membership. One in two (51 percent) currently believes that Ukraine should also be included in NATO in the long term, while 39 percent disagree. This question was also asked in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea: At that time, 26 percent said that NATO should admit Ukraine into the alliance.

Ukraine war continues to cause concern

The attention of those surveyed is still primarily focused on the local people: Currently, 82 percent are very worried or very worried about the Ukrainians (minus 7 compared to March 2022). Six out of ten Germans are currently very concerned (60 percent, down 9 compared to March 2022) that Russia could also attack other countries in Europe. About the same number are currently concerned that Germany could be drawn directly into the war (59 percent, up 3 since October). 68 percent are currently worried that the economic situation in Germany could deteriorate, compared to 64 percent in March 2022.

Only a good third of Germans trust the Bundeswehr

In connection with the Ukraine war, there is also increased discussion about the state of the Bundeswehr and what has happened so far since the “turning point” announced by Olaf Scholz. On the other hand, the Germans’ view of the troops is currently rather critical: Currently, only one in three (35 percent) state that they have great or very great trust in the Bundeswehr. A majority of 59 percent say they have little or no trust. This value is the lowest value that has been measured for the Bundeswehr since 1998. This question was last asked in September 2020, when 59 percent said they had great or very great trust in the Bundeswehr.

Recently, the operational capability of the Bundeswehr has repeatedly been discussed publicly, among other things, due to a lack of or inadequate equipment. Accordingly, only 8 percent currently have great or very great confidence that the current equipment of the Bundeswehr is sufficient for their mission, 85 percent have little or no confidence with regard to the equipment. Only 38 percent currently believe that the Bundeswehr and its alliance partners could fend off a possible attack on NATO territory. A slim majority of 54 percent say they have little to no confidence.

The Bundeswehr has also come under increasing criticism in recent years for dealing with right-wing extremism within its own ranks. Former Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) stated at the time that she wanted to pursue a “zero tolerance” line. After resigning in January, not even one in three (28 percent) has great or very great trust that the Bundeswehr will take appropriate action against right-wing extremist ideas within its own ranks, 60 percent have little or no trust at all.

Union is further ahead in the Sunday question

The majority of Germans remain dissatisfied with the work of the federal government (64 percent, unchanged compared to January); only three out of ten eligible voters (33 percent, minus 1) are satisfied. When you focus on the course of the Ukraine war, the values ​​look similar: 59 percent (plus 2 compared to October) are less or not at all satisfied; 36 percent are satisfied (minus 1).

If there were a federal election on Sunday, the chancellor party SPD would currently have 20 percent and thus win slightly (plus 2 compared to January). The Union of CDU and CSU loses slightly, but would still be the strongest with 27 percent (minus 2). The Greens fell by one percentage point to 18 percent (minus 1) and are now in third position, just behind the SPD. The FDP, which is also involved in the traffic light government, gains one point and currently has seven percent. The AfD is still at 15 percent (plus/minu 0). In February, the Left Party received only four percent (minus 1) and would thus miss out on entering the Bundestag. All other parties account for nine percent (plus 1).

Little understanding for AfD sympathies with Russia

The AfD is currently positioning itself with understanding for the Russian position in the Ukraine war. Three quarters of Germans (75 percent) don’t think that’s a good thing. Only 16 percent say they like it. However, there are regional differences here: Among people who live in federal states in eastern Germany, 25 percent think it is good that the AfD shows understanding for Russia. Only 13 percent of people from federal states in western Germany think so.

The AfD was founded on February 6, 2013. It gradually moved into all state parliaments, and is currently represented in 15 countries. She has also been represented in the Bundestag since 2017. Three out of ten Germans who are eligible to vote (32 percent) think that is correct. In the year it was founded, 20 percent said they thought it would be right for the AfD to be represented in the Bundestag. This means that approval has increased by 12 percentage points within ten years.

Here, too, there are regional differences: Among people who come from federal states in eastern Germany, 44 percent state that they think it is right for the AfD to be represented in the Bundestag. Among people from western federal states, 29 percent state this.

Majority against cooperation with the AfD

Again and again it was discussed how the other parties in the Bundestag should behave towards the AfD. Currently, a third of Germans (36 percent) think that the other parties should not rule out cooperation with the AfD. A majority of 58 percent, on the other hand, thinks that the other parties in the Bundestag should not work with the AfD.

The AfD’s handling of right-wing extremist positions or statements by individual AfD members has also been repeatedly criticized in the past. Three quarters of Germans (75 percent, down 2 compared to September 2021) currently think that the AfD is not distancing itself enough from right-wing extremist positions, while almost two out of ten (17 percent) do not think so.

investigation facility

Universe: Eligible voters in Germany
Collection method: Random telephone and online survey
Survey period: January 30 – February 01, 2023
number of cases: 1328 respondents (868 telephone interviews and 460 online interviews)
Weighting: according to sociodemographic characteristics and recollection of voting behavior; Sunday question with separate weighting
fluctuation range: 2 percentage points for a share value of 10 percent
3 percentage points for a share value of 50 percent
Implementing institute: infratest dimap

Results are rounded to whole percentages to avoid false expectations of precision. Because for all representative surveys, fluctuation ranges must be taken into account. In the case of a survey with 1000 respondents, these amount to around three percentage points for large parties and around one point for smaller parties. In addition, the rounding error is significant for small parties. For these reasons, no party below three percent is shown in the Sunday question.

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