ARD-DeutschlandTrend: Narrow majority wants to stick to debt brake

Should the debt brake be loosened or not? This question divides the traffic light coalition. 53 percent of GermanyTrend Respondents are in favor of maintaining the party. Opinions differ on the question of whether the AfD and BSW should participate in government.

Shortly before the upcoming state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, the question is increasingly being asked as to which constellations will subsequently make it possible to form governments. In the European elections, the AfD became the strongest force in all three federal states and the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition received double-digit values ​​in each of them.

Although European elections are not state elections, the AfD is still the strongest force in the current polls in the states; the BSW continues to enjoy high approval, while the Left (with the exception of Thuringia), but also the SPD (with the exception of Brandenburg), the FDP and the Greens sometimes have to worry about entering the respective state parliaments. It may be difficult to form a government in which neither the AfD nor the BSW are involved.

Possible Government participation: rather BSW than AfD

Currently, Germans would rather see Sahra Wagenknecht’s coalition in government than the AfD. ARD-DeutschlandTrend In a survey conducted between Monday and Wednesday, 1,311 eligible voters were questioned. According to the survey, 39 percent were positive about the BSW’s possible participation in the government in one of the three federal states, while 49 percent did not approve. Opinions on this issue differ greatly in East and West Germany: while in the East a majority (56 percent) would approve of BSW participation and just under a third would not, in the West a majority expressed rejection (54 percent) and a third approved (34 percent).

The majority of people are critical of AfD participation in a state government – both in the East and in the West. A total of 68 percent are against AfD participation; a quarter would be in favor of it. In the East, scepticism is somewhat less pronounced: 33 percent would be in favor of the AfD in the state government of Saxony, Thuringia or Brandenburg; 60 percent would not be in favor. In the West, 23 percent would be in favor of it and 71 percent would not be in favor.

Half for maintaining the debt brake

The discussion about the 2025 federal budget will continue to be held in public – and the positions are clear: FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner is in favor of compliance with the debt brake, and the ranks of the SPD and the Greens regularly make attempts to relax the debt brake. The Finance Minister knows that a narrow majority of respondents support his stance: 53 percent (-1 compared to May 2024) want to maintain the debt brake, 41 percent (+1) would like to relax it.

The different attitudes of the traffic light coalition are reflected in the supporters: While almost three quarters (73 percent) of FDP supporters are in favor of the debt brake, majorities of SPD and Green supporters are in favor of easing the debt brake (57 percent of SPD supporters and 72 percent of Green supporters).

Agreeing on a joint budget despite such fundamental differences seems to be costing the coalition a lot of energy. The FDP on the one hand and the Greens and SPD on the other are particularly at loggerheads with each other – a look at their supporters shows this. 38 percent of FDP supporters see the main responsibility for the fact that the draft for next year’s budget has not yet been drawn up with the Greens and 20 percent with the SPD. While 62 percent of Greens supporters and 39 percent of SPD supporters are clear that the main responsibility for the outstanding budget agreement lies with the FDP.

Federal Government still not convincing, Union strongest force

The Union can still benefit the most from the ongoing negative view of the traffic light government. In the current Sunday question, the CDU/CSU are still the strongest force with 32 percent. The traffic light parties together would also achieve 32 percent of the vote: The SPD would currently have 15 percent (+1), the Greens 12 percent (-1) – for them this is the weakest value in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend since April 2018. The FDP could expect to remain unchanged at 5 percent.

The AfD would have 16 percent (-1) in its sights, making it just barely the second strongest force. The Sahra Wagenknecht coalition improved by one point and is currently at 9 percent. All other parties currently account for 11 percent, including the Left Party.

US election: Change in mood in Germany

After US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from a re-election bid and his vice-president Kamala Harris is now running as the Democratic candidate against former Republican President Donald Trump, we are seeing a change in mood in Germany with regard to the US election. While at the beginning of July (when Biden was still in the race) 59 percent of respondents said that none of the candidates convinced them (Biden came in at 28 percent, Trump at 9 percent), at the beginning of August a good three-quarters (77 percent) of respondents in Germany said that Kamala Harris was more convincing as a candidate, 10 percent said they were in favor of Trump and 8 percent said they were in favor of neither of them.

The mood has also changed in the USA, but to a different extent. When Biden was still a candidate, he was behind Trump in the national polls. Trump was also ahead in the polls in most swing states, the US states in which both parties basically have a chance of winning the election and which will be decisive at the end of the election.

Apparently, the Democrats could no longer imagine any scenario in which they could have turned the mood around – especially not after the disastrous TV debate between Biden and Trump. With Harris as the candidate, the race is now more open again and a victory for both sides is once again conceivable.

However, it is completely unclear in which direction the political mood will move. This will depend above all on how Harris and Trump present themselves in the next three months, how they both react under pressure, but above all on which voters – especially in the swing states – can ultimately be motivated by the parties to cast their vote.

Gaza war: Criticism of Israel’s actions grows

Against the backdrop of a possible further escalation in the Middle East, there have recently been increasing calls for the German army to help protect Israel. This was the demand made by CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter in the Spiegel magazine at the weekend. However, a majority of Germans (68 percent) reject military support for Israel by Germany. This majority rejection extends across all party supporters. On the other hand, one in five Germans (19 percent) would find military support for Israel to be right, for example by refueling fighter jets from friendly nations or by using the German army’s Eurofighters, for example to defend against drones.

In Germany, criticism of Israel’s actions is somewhat greater than in the spring. More than half of respondents believe that Israel’s military response to the Hamas terrorist attacks goes too far (57 percent; +7 compared to March), while a fifth consider it appropriate (21 percent; -7).

Almost one in five (18 percent, -5) believes that military action by Israel against Hamas is justified even if the Palestinian civilian population is also affected. Two thirds of Germans (68 percent, +7) believe that military action is not justified if the civilian population in the Gaza Strip is affected.

However, citizens continue to attribute more responsibility for the current situation of the Palestinian civilian population in the Gaza Strip to the terrorist organization Hamas than to Israel: three quarters (74 percent, +1) believe Hamas is fully or somewhat responsible for it; one in ten (10 percent, -1) describe it as rather not responsible or not at all responsible. In the opinion of six out of ten Germans (61 percent, -1), Israel is fully or somewhat responsible for the situation of the Palestinian civilian population in the Gaza Strip; one in five (19 percent, -3) believes Israel is rather not responsible or not at all responsible.