Arab world after Taliban triumph: admiration and discomfort

Radical Islamists have been losing influence in the Arab world for years. Now there are growing concerns that the Taliban triumph could give them renewed impetus and strengthen extremists.

The terrorist organization Al-Qaeda extolled the Taliban’s victory on the Internet. The extremist militia Ha’it Tahrir al-Sham in northwest Syria, which was once formed by al-Qaida fighters among others, even triumphantly waved the white and black Taliban flag at a car parade in Idlib. And the Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah does not want to hide his joy either. After the US defeat in Afghanistan with its strategic lessons, so Hassan Nasrallah, one will look closely at the troops of the US army in Iraq and Syria in the coming months.

Officials in the Arab world, on the other hand, such as governments or religious institutions, have so far been strangely cautious. Occasionally, a peaceful solution for Afghanistan is called for and it is pointed out how important stability and security are now. But criticism of the Taliban and its extremist ideology? Nothing. As if it were a sensitive subject. And as if one feared that the Taliban triumph would give Islamism a new impetus in Arab countries as well.

Symbolic victory

There are strong ideological differences between the Islamist currents, says Ahmed Sayyed Ahmed from the Ahram Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo, but the symbolic victory of the Taliban, who would now create their “Islamic emirate” and enforce their interpretation of Sharia, could also be Islamists inspire and motivate those who do not use violence, such as the Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood.

That is exactly what seems to be happening. There is also admiration for the Taliban in the Salafist scene. “Today every believer is happy,” wrote the well-known Egyptian Salafist Asem Abdel Maged on Twitter. “If the Muslim Brotherhood had the courage and strength of the Taliban and turned into lions, they would take power without the slightest resistance.” Tarek al-Zomor, who became known as the leader of the Egyptian terrorist group “Islamic Jihad” and who later renounced violence, praised the success of the Taliban as a victory “against injustice and foreign rule” in a tweet.

Consent online

Despite their military inferiority, the Taliban had managed to defeat the US and NATO. That creates an enormous fascination. Ahmed Sayyed Ahmed assumes that the US defeat reinforces the conviction among the Islamist movements that the victory was made possible by God for the Taliban, i.e. that it was their firm belief that gave them the power of God against the enemy, and that one would win through the strength of faith in the end.

Many people in the region know little about the Taliban and the conditions in Afghanistan. For them, the Taliban are above all those “who defeated the Americans”. You can see how they are admired and celebrated on social media.

While this is not representative – radical Islamists have recently lost influence in the region – it is also not an outsider position, as the official statement by the Mufti of the Sultanate of Oman shows. “We congratulate the triumph,” writes Sheikh Ahmed al-Khalili, “and we congratulate the entire Muslim community on the fact that God has kept his promise. More victories may follow.”

The declaration was liked 15,000 times on Twitter, by users from many Arab countries. And it was commented on 1700 times, not always in the affirmative, but very often.

Taliban not mentioned

This is a delicate development for a number of Arab regimes and governments. You have to deal with many, especially young, frustrated people who are suffering from the circumstances. With people who are denied political, non-violent instruments because any criticism of the balance of power is threatened with reprisals and who have lost confidence in democracy and elections.

So the regimes do not need the fact that the Taliban’s armed Islamism suddenly shines in the splendor of success. That could attract the radical Islamists again. Perhaps that is why, less than a week after the fall of Kabul, the Egyptian Ministry for Islamic Foundations, a kind of Islamic Ministry of Religions, spoke up. The “Important Notice” warns: “In view of the regional and international challenges, extremist groups must not be given the opportunity to reform or reorganize in any way … The fire is blazing under the ashes.”

The word “Taliban” is not mentioned in the statement.