Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Union candidate Friedrich Merz engaged in a televised debate focusing on asylum and economic policies. Scholz accurately reported a drop in irregular migration and increased deportations, but misrepresented asylum application trends. Merz highlighted rising bankruptcies during Scholz’s term and claimed a recession, though his statements lacked full context. Both candidates used statistics that, while often true, required careful analysis to grasp their implications accurately, particularly regarding Germany’s support for Ukraine.
Debate Highlights: Scholz and Merz Discuss Asylum and Economic Policies
The recent television debate between Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Union chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz (CDU) was a deep dive into critical issues such as asylum and economic policies. Over the course of an hour and a half, both candidates backed their arguments with a multitude of statistics. While most figures held up under scrutiny, some proved to be misleading or lacked necessary context.
Asylum Applications and Deportation Insights
During the discussion on migration, Chancellor Scholz claimed that the government had recorded 40,000 rejections and noted a 34 percent drop in irregular migration for 2024. These statements are indeed accurate. However, Scholz’s assertion that January 2025 saw the lowest number of asylum applications since 2016 is incorrect. The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) reported that 16,594 asylum applications were filed in January 2025, which is higher than the counts in some previous months, such as December 2024, which had 13,716, and even April 2022, which recorded 13,056 requests.
Furthermore, while it is true that there has been a noticeable decrease in asylum applications compared to the previous year, historical data indicates peaks in applications during 2016 and 2023. Preliminary figures suggest that in 2024, asylum seekers in Germany dropped by about one-third.
In discussing deportations, Scholz stated, “We have increased deportations by 70 percent since I became Chancellor.” This claim is factually accurate; however, it lacks essential context. In 2023, 20,084 individuals were deported, marking a 22.2 percent increase from the previous year. While this is the first time since 2019 that deportations exceeded 20,000, it is crucial to consider that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the number of deportations in 2020 and 2021, resulting in lower figures.
Economic Developments: Bankruptcies and Recession Claims
Economic matters were a focal point for Merz, who claimed that Germany was experiencing a wave of bankruptcies unseen in the last 15 years, with 50,000 companies going bankrupt during Scholz’s tenure. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), there were indeed 14,590 corporate bankruptcies in 2022 and 17,814 in 2023. Preliminary data for 2024 indicates a total of 18,234 bankruptcies as of October, leading to Merz’s statement being technically correct. However, historical trends reveal that there have been several years within the past 15 years that had significantly higher bankruptcy rates.
Furthermore, Merz claimed that Germany is experiencing its third consecutive year of recession, a statement that requires clarification. While the nation’s GDP has declined slightly in the last two years—by 0.3 percent in 2023 and 0.2 percent in 2024—this condition has not been observed for over two decades. The last time such a contraction occurred was in 2002/2003. As for the potential for a recession in 2025, predictions remain uncertain, with varying growth forecasts from different economic organizations.
Lastly, Scholz emphasized Germany’s substantial support for Ukraine, stating, “Germany is the largest supporter of Ukraine in Europe and will remain so.” This assertion is largely accurate; Germany has provided nearly 44 billion euros in aid since the onset of the Russian invasion. However, while Germany leads in bilateral aid within Europe, the USA surpasses it significantly with a total support of 88 billion euros.
In summary, while both candidates presented figures that contributed to their arguments, many of these statistics require careful interpretation and context to fully understand their implications.