An intelligence note fears a “massive citizen mobilization” carried by a “social explosion”

The authorities say they are concerned about the number of grievances from the French population, but also about how this discontent could translate.

Towards a “social explosion”? This Tuesday at the end of the afternoon, the government, through its Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, will present its choices for the future of the pension system, one of the points of which, the probable postponement of the age legal at 64, announces strong opposition in the streets and in Parliament, despite the promised “social justice” measures.

“A new large-scale citizen mobilization”

A social climate which promises to be extremely tense, and which worries the authorities. In a territorial intelligence note of January 6, which BFMTV was able to consult, the police expressed their concerns.

The addition of the current demands makes them fear “the anger of the social body, which could mobilize widely in the extension of government announcements.”

An accumulation of grievances which is detailed in this note. “The rise in energy prices penalizes many activities, the profitability of which is now threatened”, write the police officers, estimating that “the year 2023 promises to be difficult, with strong wage demands in the public as in private.”

“If the population does not mobilize in numbers for the moment, the continued deterioration of purchasing power, coupled with badly perceived reforms, could lead to a new mobilization of citizens on a large scale”, warns intelligence.

Despair of craftsmen

Firstly, this note indicates that long-term strikes are to be expected in addition to the very probable demonstrations which should be announced at the end of the Prime Minister’s speech.

“Beyond the traditional processions on public roads, the movement could result in long-term strikes in several key sectors of the economy (…) like the actions taken by the CGT last fall in refineries,” it read.

In addition, the situation of “small artisans”, including that of bakers who has been mentioned for several days in high places because of the explosion of their electricity bills, is also highlighted.

“The disarray of many professionals, particularly small food artisans, is now palpable. (…) Corporate initiatives, however unaccustomed to mobilizing and acting in the form of collectives, are now emerging, with example a demonstration of artisan bakers planned in Paris on January 23.

On BFMTV last week, Corinne Butard, manager of three bakeries, confirmed that she was going to parade that day when she herself had never demonstrated in her life.

Demanding one-upmanship

In the rest of the document, territorial intelligence is also concerned about movements that could end up outside the union framework, as was the case at the end of 2022 during the strikes in the refineries, some of which took place against the advice of the inter-unions.

“Several movements have been initiated by collectives of workers, outside of any trade union framework. This method of defending professional interests seems to be more and more popular with employees, to the detriment of the traditional actions taken by unions”, we learn. .

These modes of mobilization, “less structured, arouse a certain concern both in companies and in the trade union world”, and induce “necessarily disruptive and unpredictable modes of action”, with “sometimes actions planned in a few hours at the help from social media.

Consequently, the police believe that these modes of action could lead to “a certain escalation of demands” by the unions, for fear of being “overwhelmed by their base”.

What about yellow vests?

Finally, the intelligence note recalls that the rise in energy prices, the initial claim of the Yellow Vests, and inflation, “seem to remotivate [ces derniers] and opponents of the health pass, who intend to multiply visibility actions.

In recent months, their rallies have not had much success, but “the failure of significant mobilizations of yellow vests should not hide the rise of discontent within the territories, linked to a deterioration in purchasing power. “

This Saturday, some 4,700 people mobilized on Saturday in France at their call, including 2,000 in Paris, to denounce the policy of Emmanuel Macron and the future pension reform.

Alexandra Gonzalez with Hugo Septier

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