China’s military expansion under Xi Jinping poses a significant threat to Taiwan, with the PLA enhancing capabilities to assert control and deter U.S. intervention. While experts question China’s ability to execute an invasion due to geographical challenges, potential strategies include gradual military pressure, a coast guard-enforced quarantine, and a blockade to disrupt Taiwan’s resources. A conflict in this region would have far-reaching global economic consequences, particularly affecting semiconductor supply chains and international trade routes.
The Strategic Threat of China’s Military Expansion
Xi Jinping, the influential leader of China, has made his intentions clear: Taiwan is a part of China. Over the years, he has significantly strengthened the military capabilities of the nation, with the Chinese navy now boasting a larger fleet than that of the United States. Moreover, China’s missile systems are equipped to strike targets thousands of kilometers away, indicating a clear mission: the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aims to assert control over Taiwan and deter any potential U.S. intervention.
Despite these military advancements, many experts remain skeptical about China’s current ability to execute a successful invasion of Taiwan. The narrowest point of the Taiwan Strait spans 130 kilometers, making an amphibious assault a daunting and complex task. With unpredictable sea and weather conditions, the defenders on Taiwan’s side hold a significant advantage.
Potential Scenarios for Military Action
China can adopt various military strategies that fall within the so-called “grey zone,” which includes actions that utilize military means without crossing the threshold into open warfare. Here are three escalating scenarios that could unfold:
The Slow Wearing Down
China’s gradual tactics have been particularly evident in the airspace surrounding Taiwan, known as the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Three years ago, Chinese aircraft primarily operated at the periphery of this zone; however, they now frequently cross the median line. This proximity significantly reduces Taiwan’s response time to potential threats.
In certain instances, larger formations of Chinese aircraft have approached Taiwan, with a record of 111 detected in a single day. This constant presence raises uncertainty for Taiwan, making it difficult to discern whether these flights are mere provocations or a precursor to an actual attack. Surveillance aircraft and drones also patrol the island, reinforcing the perception that Taiwan is encircled. The goal is to instill a sense of helplessness among Taiwan’s population, sending the message that resistance is futile.
The Police Quarantine
China can adopt a less aggressive approach by positioning its navy in a supportive role, using the coast guard to enforce a quarantine around Taiwan. Officially, this action is framed as a law enforcement measure. However, China’s coast guard vessels are heavily armed and significantly larger than Taiwan’s naval ships, which complicates any defensive response from Taiwan.
By implementing a quarantine, China can disrupt Taiwan’s maritime trade, leading to increased delivery times and rising costs. Major ports like Kaohsiung could face substantial economic losses, impacting the livelihoods of many Taiwanese citizens. Even after a quarantine ends, the continued presence of Chinese coast guard ships can create a lasting psychological effect, signaling that this state of affairs is the new normal.
The Military Blockade
A blockade could serve as a strategic maneuver to cut Taiwan off from essential resources, making life increasingly difficult for its population of 23 million. Taiwan heavily relies on imports for energy and food, with over 95 percent of its energy sourced externally. A well-enforced blockade could lead to shortages, stirring political and media disputes while allowing China to manipulate public opinion by controlling information flow.
By employing these strategies, China could not only weaken Taiwan’s military capabilities but also undermine the resilience of its population. The gradual tightening of control around Taiwan reflects an anaconda strategy, as described by Admiral Tang Hua, head of the Taiwanese navy.
In the event of a crisis, Taiwan’s ability to withstand pressure without external assistance is limited. To counteract a blockade, assistance from the United States or allied forces would be crucial.
Global Consequences of a Taiwan Conflict
The implications of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait extend far beyond regional dynamics. A quarantine or blockade would disrupt not only Taiwan’s imports but also its exports, particularly in the semiconductor industry, where the island produces 90 percent of the world’s most advanced chips used in technology, automotive, and defense sectors.
The Taiwan Strait is also a critical shipping route for the global economy. If China were to declare these waters closed or if shipping companies deemed them too dangerous, it could lead to significant disruptions in international trade. Numerous countries depend on these routes for their imports and exports, making the stakes exceedingly high.
In summary, the situation surrounding Taiwan is fraught with potential conflict and carries vast global implications, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic efforts and strategic alliances in navigating these complex geopolitical waters.