Anyone who is currently worried about the rise of the AfD does not have to feel alone. Every weekend people take to the streets. What the protests will leave behind remains to be seen.
Hundreds of thousands of people take to the streets, shaken up by a report by the media company Correctiv about a meeting of radical right-wingers. The scale of the protests is impressive – but how long can it last? And do the demonstrations actually have a chance of achieving what the participants are hoping for: a weakening of the AfD and right-wing extremist groups?
The political sociologist Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck from the University of Mannheim observes a dynamic of its own. “If six-figure participant numbers are regularly reported, the hurdle for additional participants drops significantly.” But at some point the peak will be reached, after which the mobilization will stop again. “I’ll give it another two or three weeks, then the peak will probably be over.”
Above all, the protests could change social debates, says protest researcher Peter Ullrich from the Technical University of Berlin. This will not win back convinced right-wing extremists and AfD supporters. “But people who are undecided, perhaps less informed or not very politically stable are offered different interpretations here than those offered by the AfD.”
Against hate – but chanting hate?
The high number of participants is probably also due to the principle of the lowest common denominator. The demonstrators are united by their rejection of the AfD and right-wing extremism. But when it comes to the question of how this attitude should be expressed, trade unionists, church representatives and Antifa activists are likely to have different opinions.
In Aachen, the public prosecutor’s office is now investigating a poster with the inscription “Kill AfDlers. Deport Nazis!”. At the Berlin demonstration on Sunday, hatred and agitation were condemned from the right, but at the same time the ranks of demonstrators repeatedly chanted “All of Berlin hates the AfD” – a sentence that participants also shouted elsewhere.
Correctiv revelation as a trigger
Correctiv made public a meeting of radical right-wingers on November 25th in Potsdam, in which AfD politicians as well as individual members of the CDU and the very conservative Values Union took part. The former head of the Identitarian Movement in Austria, Martin Sellner, said he spoke about “remigration” at the meeting.
When right-wing extremists use this term, they usually mean that large numbers of people of foreign origin should leave the country – even under duress. According to a recent YouGov survey, the reports have damaged the image of the AfD for one in two respondents. But not only the political competition, the AfD itself also recently reported an increase in membership.
Protest researchers: developing demands
And what happens after the protests? “Without the approach of a common analysis and tangible political demands, it will be very difficult to maintain such a broad alliance,” says Ullrich. But civil society alliances could remain active locally and change the culture there. “Such a movement can also have the character of a loose network.” Common themes could perhaps be the demand for a ban on the AfD or the call for political constellations beyond the party, says the protest researcher.
Sociologist Schmitt-Beck warns against making things too easy for yourself when dealing with the AfD. “You have to know the party’s arguments exactly and be able to explain where they contradict the basic values of liberal democracy and the Basic Law,” he says. “Being outraged and shouting ‘Nazis out’ is not enough. Journalists, politicians, but also the citizens who encounter AfD voters in their everyday lives have to take on this detailed argumentative work, even if it is difficult.”
Studies from abroad at least suggest that demonstrations can influence election results – at the expense of the party on strike. Researchers found evidence of this in studies of the French presidential election in 2002, when right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen ultimately lost to conservative Jacques Chirac, in regional elections in northern Italy in 2020 when the “Sardine” movement mobilized against the right-wing populist Lega, and in protests against the right-wing extremist party Golden Dawn in Greece between 2009 and 2019.
All three studies focused on the interaction of local protests with municipal voting results. The MDR also reported on the studies in an article.
Steinmeier: Demos against the right can “make democrats proud”
Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was pleased about the large demonstrations against the right, but at the same time called for further commitment to democracy. “I’m happy about it and grateful that the democratic center of society has woken up,” said Steinmeier to the SWR capital studio. The demonstrations would prove that the loud despisers of democracy are not in the majority: “This can make Democrats self-confident and a little proud,” emphasized the head of state.
However, these demonstrations cannot replace political engagement, said Steinmeier when asked what would happen next with the protests. His request to those who are dissatisfied is to get off the sofa and get actively involved in the community. Democracy depends on the commitment of its citizens. In no country are there such good opportunities for this as in Germany. To achieve this, people who take on political responsibility, especially at the local level, must be shown more respect, warned Steinmeier.
State elections: Is the AfD slipping?
It is difficult to say what the current mobilization could mean for the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in the fall. The latest nationwide surveys by Forsa and Insa show that the AfD has slipped slightly in favor of voters, to 20.0 and 21.5 percent. This corresponds to normal fluctuations over several months.
In some East German federal states, the AfD was in first place with more than 30 percent of the vote in recent surveys. And: The state elections are only in September, a political and media eternity away.
Demonstrations against the right also in Austria
In Austria, thousands of people took part in demonstrations against the right. According to observers, around 15,000 people gathered in front of the parliament building in Vienna this evening. Under the motto “Defend democracy!” The participants wanted to take a stand against right-wing extremism, racism and anti-Semitism. With their cell phones, they created a sea of lights around the National Council building.
People also took to the streets in Innsbruck and Salzburg, following the example of the mass protests against right-wing extremism in Germany. The demonstrations were supported by many civil society and political organizations.
At the demonstrations, participants warned that the right-wing FPÖ could come into government after the parliamentary elections. The right-wing populists have been in first place in surveys since the end of 2022, well ahead of the also opposition Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the conservative Chancellor’s Party ÖVP. The FPÖ currently has almost 30 percent of voters behind it.