We enter the last straight line. Three days before the second round of the regional, the candidates are trying to mobilize their camp all over France. The results of last Sunday, which made the outgoing presidents the favorites, will they be confirmed at the polls? Abstention, duel in Paca, presidential match on the right… We come back to the hot spots of the ballot.
Will abstention decrease in the second round?
After the dizzying abstention from the first round (nearly 67% of those registered), a record for an election since the start of the Fifth Republic, participation will be closely scrutinized next Sunday. Criticized by the opposition for its lack of information, the
government launched a communication campaign on Wednesday “Flash on social networks” to encourage people to vote. On the ground, this week, the candidates are trying to mobilize the abstainers, in particular on the side of the National Rally, one of the parties most affected by this desertion from the polls. “We say to our voters: ‘Go out on Sunday, take your responsibilities!’ Otherwise, it is the minority camp that will win, ”argues in particular Gilles Pennelle, RN candidate in Brittany.
Can the RN win in Paca?
The flattering polls, which put RN candidates in first place in six regions, were swept away at the polls. Only Thierry Mariani in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur finally beat outgoing LR president Renaud Muselier (36.38 against 31.91%). But the former Sarkozyst minister will have to fully mobilize his camp to take the region to the right. As in 2015, a “republican front” was set up with the withdrawal from the environmentalist list of Jean-Laurent Félizia, third Sunday (16.9%). And to convince left-wing voters, Renaud Muselier “committed” to creating a “committee” to represent the nine political parties from this list.
The fate of the Paca promises to be crucial for Marine Le Pen, who hopes to take at least one region to boost her presidential campaign. “We must show that we are able to manage such a large community, it is a major issue at the national level for the credibility of our movement,” said a close relative of the candidate.
On the right, which presidential candidate will get the best score?
The three right-wing outgoing presidents who displayed their national ambitions for the coming months dominated the first round on Sunday. Their score will be scrutinized, a few weeks before the appointment of the right-wing candidate for the presidential election. Xavier Bertrand, already a presidential candidate, came first (41.42%) in Hauts-de-France, far ahead of RN Sébastien Chenu (24.37%) and the union list of the left of Karima Delli (18.97%). The elimination of Minister Laurent Pietraszewski, who called to vote for the ex-LR on Sunday, should make his task easier.
In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Laurent Wauquiez is on a royal road. President LR crushes his opponents (43.85%, thirty points ahead) by achieving the best score in all regions. Neither the union of the three left-wing lists (EELV, PS and PCF) nor the presence of the RN (12.3%) should prevent his re-election. In Ile-de-France, the margin of advance seems less important for Valérie Pécresse (36.18%), who will face the united left list led by the ecologist Julien Bayou, that of Jordan Bardella (RN) and that of Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM).
Can environmentalists delight a region on the right?
The green ambition is on the side of Pays-de-la-Loire. This is probably where environmentalists stand the best chance of winning. The ex-walker Matthieu Orphelin, allied to LFI, came in second on Sunday (18.70%), far behind outgoing LR president Christelle Morancais (34.30%). But the candidate supported by EELV managed to ally with the socialist Guillaume Garot (16.31%) and should benefit from the retention in the second round of François de Rugy (LREM, 11.97%) and Hervé Juvin (RN , 12.53%). “We have been running a campaign for nine months in joy and serenity on everyday themes: mobility, purchasing power, employment. We are going to achieve what nobody imagined ”, hopes Matthieu Orphelin.
Ungovernable regions?
What if the vote did not provide all its answers on Sunday evening? In some regions, negotiations could continue after the results of the second round. The voting system provides for the top list to have a 25% premium for regional council seats. The rest of the places are allocated on a proportional basis between all the lists having obtained more than 5%. But in some regions, the top candidates could score too low to secure an absolute majority. This could be the case in Brittany and New Aquitaine, where five lists are maintained for the second round.