internal party criticism
Republican Senator: “Donald Trump will not win the election”
A picture from friendlier times: Donald Trump and Bill Cassidy (right) in October 2019.
© Gerald Herbert / Picture Alliance
Anyone who criticizes Donald Trump among US Republicans will quickly incur the ex-president’s anger. As might Bill Cassidy publicly counting the likely next candidate.
Donald Trump ran for election four times and didn’t win once. In 2016, opponent Hillary Clinton got more votes, he became US President because of the peculiarities of the US electoral system. Two years later, the Americans gave him a mediocre interim report, even if only his party was on the slip. In 2020 he lost the duel against Joe Biden and in the past midterm elections the candidates he supported lost out in rows. Donald Trump may cast a spell over the United States, but he is not capable of winning a majority.
“Donald Trump will not be able to win”
Seen in this light, Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy’s prediction is more realistic than shocking: “Trump won’t be able to win the next presidential election,” he said on the news channel CNN. Cassidy bases its forecast on the outcome of the midterms last November. Trump’s offensive support for his candidates harmed them. “If this past is the prelude, then he will have a hard time,” said the Republican.
The pessimistic statement is particularly noteworthy because internal party criticism of the early president has all but died down. In recent years, most conservative Trump critics have been silenced or chased out of court, such as Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney, daughter of former US Vice President Dick Cheney.
Trump leads in the polls
Much to the chagrin of moderate conservatives, Donald Trump has effectively taken over the party. According to internal polls He is well ahead of possible other presidential candidates such as Ron DeSantis from Florida, former Vice President Mike Pence or the newly entered evangelical Tim Scott. Incidentally, the latter is a “formidable candidate,” says Cassidy, but Trump is only using his supremacy to get one over on him.
Trump’s chances of beating his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, in the next election in November 2024 are surprisingly good, at least according to the latest polls. On average, the former president is just about one and a half percent ahead of the incumbent. Such polls, while not particularly meaningful at this early stage, are nevertheless an indication that Americans may not be as tired of the right-wing populist as some would like.
Election decides in swing states
But like every US election, the devil could be in the details of the next one – or rather, in certain states. After all, the head of state is not whoever gets the most votes, but whoever manages to win the most states. And some, the swing states, are more important than others. For example, California always votes for the Democrats, there is nothing for Trump, Texas always for the Republicans, there is nothing for Biden.
midterm elections
Election deniers, right-wing agitators and conspiracy supporters: These Trump candidates could move into Congress
As in 2020, the decisive votes in 2024 could again come from Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, where the majority of people do not always vote for the same party. But the candidates supported by Trump lost there last November. For Bill Cassidy it is therefore clear: “Donald Trump will not win the election.”
Sources: DPA, CNN, Realclearpolitics“New York Magazine“