A chance for peace in Ethiopia? – Politics

During the Ethiopian civil war, the leadership of the breakaway region of Tigray announced that it would withdraw its troops from the rest of Ethiopia and offered an immediate ceasefire. “I have ordered the units of the Tigray Army that are outside the borders of Tigray to withdraw into the borders of Tigray with immediate effect,” wrote Debretsion Gebremichael, the president of the region, in a letter to the UN on Sunday General Secretary António Guterres.

The civil war began at the beginning of November 2020, since then tens of thousands of people have probably died, hundreds of thousands have fled, millions suffer from malnutrition.

“Neither side can impose its will on the other through military dominance,” wrote Debretsion to the UN chief. It is a “useless war”.

Tensions had started when Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. Before that, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had become a party, had dominated politics and economy in Ethiopia for almost 30 years, even though the Tigray ethnic group only makes up six percent of the population of Ethiopia. Under the TPLF leadership, the economy grew at record levels for many years, but corruption and human rights violations under the Unity Party regime kept getting worse. After years of protests, Abiy, a representative of the largest ethnic group, the Oromo, took power for the first time, the Tigray elite lost influence, power and wealth, and many of their leaders withdrew to the north and sabotaged Abiy’s politics.

Both sides are accused of serious atrocities

He had received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his reconciliation with the old archenemy in Eritrea, but there was no reconciliation with the Tigray. Together with the troops from the neighboring country, Abiy’s troops and numerous militias occupied the Tigray region and committed mass rape and mass shootings. The pendulum turned later, in November the TPLF troops were advancing towards the capital Addis Ababa, and western embassies were already beginning to bring their employees to safety. The TPLF are also accused of serious atrocities.

The TPLF has been on the defensive again for a few weeks, losing some strategically important cities and areas. Debretsion blamed, at least indirectly, the armament of the Ethiopian government army, which is said to have received drones from Turkey, Iran and the Emirates in the past few months. The peace offer corresponds to the dynamics of the conflict; Half a year ago, when his troops were on the defensive, Abiy had also offered a unilateral ceasefire, which the Tigray rejected at the time.

On Monday evening, the UN Security Council wanted to deal with the situation in Ethiopia, which threatens to destabilize the entire region in the Horn of Africa. Abiy’s government initially did not respond to the withdrawal and the offer of a ceasefire. In the past few months, numerous mediators had tried unsuccessfully to find a solution to the conflict, and the TPLF’s not entirely voluntary withdrawal offers the best chance for a long time. Whether Abiy still has the power to stop the dynamics of the conflict is questionable.

The latest successes are not necessarily due to the federal army; they are the result of the mobilization of militias and special forces from the Amhara region, home to the second largest ethnic group in the country. They have been arguing with the Tigray for a long time about areas claimed by both sides and the future of the entire federal state. A large part of the leadership of the Amharen is not ready to negotiate, they want to destroy the Tigray. “If Abiy negotiates with the TPLF, he will no longer be our president,” said a senior Amhara official in the SZ.

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